Bitcoin Tests ETF Cost Basis as Short-Term Holder Pressure Remains 

Highlights:

• Bitcoin has nearly reclaimed the ETF cohort’s average entry price at $74,232.
• Bitcoin still trades far below the short-term holder cost basis of $83,734.
• BTC sits inside resistance, with $76,000 as the near-term trigger and $70,625 as the first visible support.

Bitcoin has moved close to a major on-chain threshold on April 14 as the price approached the average entry level for holders of US spot ETFs. According to Axel Adler Jr., citing CryptoQuant data, this level stands at $74,232, while the spot price trades near $74,206. As a result, the gap narrows to less than $30, placing the ETF cohort close to break-even. This shift marks an important test after several weeks of trading below this realized price band.

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ETF Holders Move Close to Their Average Entry Point

Over recent weeks, the ETF cost basis stayed in a range between roughly $74,000 and $75,700. During that period, the market remained below the average purchase level of coins held through ETF products. Currently, the price has climbed back to the lower edge of that zone. Therefore, the latest move places the ETF segment at a key decision point.

If the price holds above $74,232, the aggregate ETF position moves out of loss and into a neutral state. This development would improve conditions for this holder group, which has spent weeks under pressure. At the same time, the narrow spread between spot and realized price shows that the market has not yet cleared the level decisively.

Short-term Holder Pressure Still Shapes the Next Move

Meanwhile, the broader cost basis structure still shows a split between short-term and long-term holders. Short-term holders carry an average cost basis near $83,734. Long-term holders, in contrast, hold an average cost basis of around $43,018. As a result, short-term holders remain about $9,500 underwater, while long-term holders keep a profit cushion of roughly $31,000 per coin.

This gap matters because it shows where the next layer of selling pressure could emerge. Although the ETF cohort has nearly reached equilibrium, the short-term holder group still sits far above the current price. The higher cost basis now forms the next major level in the market structure.

Key Levels to Watch in Bitcoin Price

According to crypto analyst Ted, Bitcoin has returned to a major resistance area on the three-day chart, with price pressing into the red supply band near $74,800 to $76,500. This zone capped previous advances, making the latest move a critical test for traders watching short-term direction.

The chart also shows overhead pressure before $80,600, while a stronger barrier sits higher around the $84,500 region. This structure suggests any push above $76,000 could face swift reactions, especially after repeated failures near upper resistance.

$BTC is back into its heavy resistance zone.

Spot demand is coming from Saylor only, and perps are getting too bullish.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin breaks above $76,000 to trap the heavily levered bears before the next downtrend. pic.twitter.com/g1YAq6ipal

— Ted (@TedPillows) April 14, 2026

Below current levels, visible support stands near $70,625 on this chart, then around $65,800 and $60,400 if momentum weakens. Ted added that overheated perpetual positioning could trigger a brief squeeze first before Bitcoin decides whether this rebound can hold cleanly.

At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $74,530, following the broad market rebound. This latest bullish turnaround has pushed the weekly gains to 7%. Moreover, the market cap and trading volume have climbed to $1.50 trillion and $55 billion, respectively.

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