Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Stalls, $80K or $60K Next?

Highlights:

• Bitcoin little changed intraday as investors turn cautious amid renewed Iran tensions.
• Breakdown in US–Iran talks weighs on sentiment, tracking weakness in risk-on assets.
• CLARITY Act uncertainty and rising crypto exploits add to Bitcoin price pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is little changed intraday after a rally towards the end of last week. When writing, Bitcoin was trading at $71,018.65, down by a negligible 0.65%. Bitcoin trading volumes are also relatively stable during the day. They currently stand at $29.61 billion, up by 11% intraday. The lack of major price action in Bitcoin points to investor caution, as events in the geopolitical space have taken a different turn.

US-Iran Talks Breakdown Puts Bitcoin Investors On Edge

Bitcoin’s rally last week came after the US and Iran agreed on a 14-day ceasefire and headed to Pakistan for talks. However, over the weekend, the situation changed, talks broke down, and the US announced it would block the Strait of Hormuz. This is likely to complicate supply chains further, as it would mean the Strait is now blocked by both the US and Iran.

This now re-elevates the risk to the 20% of global oil supply that goes through the Strait. The impact is that in Asian trading, US stocks started with a gap down. Since Bitcoin tends to trade in the overall direction of US stocks, it followed that it traded lower relative to last week’s price action as well. 

#BREAKING: President Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any ships from entering or leaving the passage after breakdown in talks with Iran. pic.twitter.com/UWJpiVh5eA

— Luke Brenner (@TheLukeReport) April 12, 2026

However, US stocks are making a mild recovery as the US market opening approaches. This could be an indicator that markets expect the two sides to come to a reasonable solution. As such, Bitcoin, too, is pushing back towards $72k in in the day. If President Trump backs down and a reasonable solution emerges, the rally that began last week could continue.

Long-term delay in passage of the CLARITY Act Could Push Bitcoin Price Lower

Outside of geopolitics, Bitcoin investors are in limbo regarding the CLARITY Act. The bill has already passed Congress, but now sits in the Senate Banking Committee. According to pro-cryptocurrency Senator Cynthia Lummis, there is a shrinking window for the bill to pass. If it does not happen in the next few weeks, other issues could be given priority, and the Midterms are coming.

Senator Lummis believes that such a scenario could see the much-awaited cryptocurrency bill get shelved until at least 2030. Such a possibility adds to the uncertainty created by the geopolitical environment. If it passes, Bitcoin could rocket to new highs regardless of what is happening outside the cryptocurrency world. However, if it fails, external pressures, such as developments in the Middle East, could push Bitcoin lower. 

WOOOOOOOOOAAAAHHHHHH!!!!

🇺🇸 Senator Lummis calls for Congress to pass crypto market structure legislation.

"This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030."

MASSIVE FOR CRYPTO AND #XRP!! pic.twitter.com/pQFnEVhHl3

— Mr Q-17. (@real_Qpatriot) April 10, 2026

Growing Exploits in the Cryptocurrency Space Could Impact BTC Short Term

Bitcoin’s intraday price action is also affected by the growing number of exploits in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Recently, an exploit led to a Solana DeFi project losing over $200 million. The latest exploit has targeted the Polkadot ecosystem.

Such exploits, though not directly linked to Bitcoin, could see conservative investors choose to stay away from cryptocurrencies. This is especially the case now that macro factors continue to weigh heavily on the market. Overall, there is so much happening that has left investors sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity in market direction. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Yet to Make Any Major Directional Moves

Bitcoin continues trading in a broad range between the $74,762 resistance and $62,618 support. If bulls take control and push Bitcoin through the $74,762 resistance, a rally to $80k could follow.

On the flipside, if bears take control and push Bitcoin below the $62,618 support level, a correction to $60k could follow. Either of these two scenarios playing out is likely dependent on events in the Middle East. If markets expect de-escalation, risk-on assets could rally, pushing Bitcoin to new highs. However, if the situation escalates, Bitcoin could drop to $60k or lower in the short term.