Bitcoin Price Analysis – Can BTC Break $79K or Drop Toward $62K After Fed Decision?

Highlights:

• Bitcoin drops to $76.9K as traders turn cautious before the April 28–29 FOMC meeting.
• ETF outflows and $87M in long liquidations add pressure after repeated rejection near $79K.
• A dovish Fed surprise could push Bitcoin above $79K, opening a possible move toward $89K.

Bitcoin (BTC) is slightly in the red today, reflecting intraday weakness across major financial assets. When writing, Bitcoin was trading at $76,898.1, down by 0.95% in the day. However, Bitcoin’s trading volume is relatively stable throughout the day. They currently stand at $32.76 billion, up 5.88% in the day. These stable volumes amid a slight price decline hint at cautious investor sentiment rather than a shift towards panic selling. The short-term caution is already evident in ETF action in the last 24 hours. 

Bitcoin ETFs Record Outflows Ahead of FOMC

ETFs data shows that US Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $263.18 million on April 27. This comes after several days of inflows into major ETFs. The outflow came just a day ahead of the FOMC, which is happening today and tomorrow, April 28 to 29. The FOMC usually triggers excessive market volatility, which could see investors take cover until a rate decision is made.

BEARISH 🩸

Bitcoin ETFs sold $263 million worth of BTC yesterday.

This was the first net outflow after 10 days. pic.twitter.com/z4zAhWRnMX

— Marcus Frederick Nero (@Marcus_F_Nero) April 28, 2026

As such, institutional capital could return in full force once a decision is made, particularly if it is dovish. If the FOMC takes a dovish turn, risk-on assets could gain even more momentum, building on the recent rally. The result could be a potential Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs. 

Derivatives Traders Cautious Ahead of FOMC

Beyond institutional caution, as seen in ETF outflows, Bitcoin’s intraday price action is also a signal of caution for derivatives traders. Bitcoin appears to have failed to push through the $79k resistance for the 8th time in a short period.

This is creating the impression that the price could be headed back lower. The failure at this resistance has already seen over $87 million in Bitcoin longs liquidated. Given that the failure at resistance coincides with the FOMC, buyers could pull back while short sellers take a more dominant position. The result is that Bitcoin could be headed lower in the short term.

Possible Short Squeeze Could Send Bitcoin Past $79k Resistance

However, there is still a significant risk of a short squeeze if Bitcoin surprises with a rally through $79k. A key catalyst for such a rally is the outcome of the ongoing FOMC meeting. Bitcoin and other risk-on assets have performed exceptionally well through the geopolitical crisis of the last few months.

This means a dovish pivot by the Fed would trigger a rally that could see Bitcoin rally to prices above $80k in a short time. That’s because the underlying momentum is already bullish, and low interest rates would simply add more capital to risk-on assets.

#FOMC on April 29 is expected to deliver an unchanged rate decision.

This will likely be the last FOMC meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

We thank him for many years of excellent service.

The new Fed chair will likely be Kevin Warsh. Markets generally view him as… pic.twitter.com/H7PA3BWYlq

— Seth (@seth_fin) April 27, 2026

Bitcoin, one of the top risk-on assets, could easily rocket back to its previous all-time highs in such a scenario. Besides, regulations are improving, further giving conservative investors confidence to invest in Bitcoin. For instance, the CLARITY Act is expected to become a reality soon and unlock trillions of dollars into the cryptocurrency market. Most of it is likely to flow into Bitcoin, thanks to its pole position in the market. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Breaks Down From Bullish Channel

Bitcoin’s correction in the last 24 hours has seen it break downwards from the bullish channel it has traded in for days. However, for a bearish pivot to be confirmed, Bitcoin needs to breach the $74,723 support. If the support is broken, Bitcoin could drop to $62,618 in the short term.

However, if the $74,723 support holds, two scenarios could play out. The first is a consolidation around the $74,723 support. The second is when Bitcoin rallies to a new high above $79,404, then hits $89,193 in the short term. Which of these scenarios plays out will be determined by the outcome of the ongoing FOMC meeting. A dovish pivot could send Bitcoin to $89,193, while a hawkish one could send it tumbling back to $62,618 in the short term.