Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 60% as Senate Timeline Tightens

Highlights:

• As the Senate’s time on the floor continues to grow tighter, Galaxy Research has lowered the chances of CLARITY Act passage to 60%.
• The firm believes that progress could be delayed because of the July deadline or unresolved amendments, along with FISA delays.
• Galaxy still believes there may be another passage, but ethical and illicit-financing issues must be resolved promptly.

Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, according to a June 5 note shared by Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy. Thorn said he had just sent the note to clients after new pressure on the Senate calendar reduced the bill’s chances.

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The CLARITY Act is a major U.S. crypto market structure bill. It aims to create clearer rules for digital assets and decide how crypto markets should be regulated. Galaxy said it is not lowering the odds because the bill itself has weakened. The firm said the main problem is time. The Senate is running out of usable days, and the bill still needs several steps before it can become law.

i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today

i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next… pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026

Senate Timing Becomes the Main Problem

Galaxy raised its estimate to 75% on May 22. That was after the firm had placed the odds at 55% on the morning of the May 14 Senate Banking markup. The bill later cleared committee in a 15-9 vote with bipartisan support and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1.

However, Galaxy now sees a narrower path. The firm believes the bill needs to pass the Senate, and probably the House again, before the August recess. That recess is now expected to begin at the end of July. After that, the lawmaking window could become much harder because fall activity in a midterm election year is usually limited.

The bill still needs floor debate, amendments, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and House action on any changes. Galaxy said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July. Anything later may not leave enough time for the remaining steps.

Thorn said the Senate already lost time because of a fight over the administration’s anti-weaponization fund, which came through the ICE and Border Patrol funding package. The timeline became tighter after the Senate failed to advance the reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA. The procedural vote failed 47-52 after several Republicans joined nearly every Democrat in opposition.

Section 702 is set to lapse on June 12. Galaxy said much of next week’s Senate floor time may now go toward reauthorizing it rather than working on crypto market-structure legislation.

Unresolved Issues Add More Pressure

Galaxy said the bill’s substance has not clearly moved this week. Thorn wrote that no meaningful headlines showed progress on open issues around the bill or negotiations.

The firm pointed to ethics provisions as one key issue. Senate Democrats led by Gallego have said these provisions are needed before they support the bill. Illicit finance rules also remain unresolved. Galaxy said changes from the Senate Banking markup moved the bill slightly on BRCA, but lawmakers focused on illicit finance still want more changes.

Galaxy said these issues can still be solved. However, they have not been visibly solved yet. That matters because floor time depends on both the Senate calendar and whether leadership believes the bill can reach 60 votes.

With the calendar tightening, Galaxy said Thune has little reason to spend a week of floor time on a bill if Democratic votes are not locked. The firm expects two Republican no votes from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul. Because of that, the bill needs a strong block of at least nine Democratic votes on the Senate floor.

Galaxy Research Still Sees Passage as More Likely Than Not

Galaxy said it could raise its estimate again if leadership makes a credible commitment for floor action in early to mid-July. The firm also wants public signs that the ethics and illicit finance questions have been settled. A merged text from the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees would also improve the outlook.

Without those signals in the next two to three weeks, Galaxy said the path may narrow to a post-recess effort in September. That would run into midterm election dynamics, making the fall outlook more uncertain.

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