Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why BTC Could Drop to $105,000 Soon

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is consolidating between $109,744 resistance and $109,012 support
• Bitcoin bears are putting a lot of pressure on the $109,012 support level
• Correction through the $109,012 support could send Bitcoin to $105,000

Bitcoin (BTC), like the rest of the market, is in the red today, continuing price weakness that has been witnessed for the better part of the week. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $109,105, down by 2.44%. However, as the price drops, Bitcoin trading volumes continue to rise. 

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin trading volumes have shot up by 37.58% to $73.24 billion. This is likely a bearish signal, as it could signal that holders may be liquidating their positions in anticipation of a further price correction. The market indicators already confirm a potential bearish pivot for Bitcoin, at least in the short term. 

Old Wallets Booking Profits Could Send Bitcoin Lower

One of these indicators is data showing that old Bitcoin wallets may be liquidating their holdings. On-chain data shows that old wallets have recently moved 3.4 million Bitcoin. This is an indicator that the Satoshi era Bitcoin holders increasingly believe that Bitcoin has finally matured and that the mega gains of the past may not be achievable.

Instead, Bitcoin could start moving more like other mainstream assets, such as stocks. Such sentiment is further cemented by the fact that regulators are increasingly keen on the cryptocurrency market. For instance, regulators keenly watch Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for tax purposes and anti-money laundering laws.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders are cashing in more profit than ever before.

This cycle LTHs have realized a profit of 3.4M $BTC, bigger than any previous bull run.

But unlike past cycles, sell pressure has barely dented the price structure.

It simply means that despite people… pic.twitter.com/4gP0ET5qgl

— Niels (@Web3Niels) September 25, 2025

Retail Sentiment Still Weak for Bitcoin Price

Data also shows that retail money is not keen on Bitcoin in the short term. This is evident in the fact that the fear and greed index is hovering at 30. Such a reading usually means that the market is in a state of fear and that investors expect further downside in the short term. With the Federal Reserve chairman stating that markets are currently overvalued, investors may be taking a wait-and-see approach towards Bitcoin, especially now that it is trading below $110k.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 32

Time to be greedy now when others are fearful!💪

DYOR, Buy the dip, HODL, चिल. pic.twitter.com/nGGZPWXDAQ

— Sumit Gupta (CoinDCX) (@smtgpt) September 26, 2025

Weakness in Bitcoin is also evident in inflows into structured Bitcoin-focused financial instruments. Data shows that inflows into Bitcoin ETPs have weakened. This indicates that even institutional money could be sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity in the market. 

Options Expiry Driving Bitcoin Selling Pressure Amid Fears of Volatility

Besides the long-term holders selling, investors are likely sitting on the sidelines awaiting options expiry today. Bitcoin options worth $21 billion today are set to expire today. Options expiry usually comes with a surge in volatility. This, combined with weakness across risk-on assets, means Bitcoin could experience some weakness until after the expiry.

$21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today.

A major driver of the crypto market's recent drop.

US PCE and Core PCE data drop at 8:30 AM ET today. If inflation shows signs of rising, the market could slide further.

— Inspired Analyst (@inspirdanalyst) September 26, 2025

Long-Term Picture Bullish for Bitcoin

Despite the bearish pivot in the short term, the long-term metrics paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin. For instance, the regulatory environment is improving in major markets like the US. Recently, an industry roundtable in Washington discussed the strategic Bitcoin reserve.

If it materializes, the reserve could see the United States own as much as 1 million Bitcoin in the next 5 years. This is likely to keep the momentum around Bitcoin strong in the future. However, this is a long-term play, and things like institutional and whale buying or selling are more critical in the short term. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Support Under Pressure Even as Price Consolidates

Bitcoin has been consolidating between the $109,744 resistance and $109,012 support for the last 24 hours. However, bears are putting much pressure on the $109,012 support and have breached it on the hourly charts.

If bears take control and decisively push Bitcoin through the $109,012 support, then a price correction as low as $105,000 could follow in the short term. Of these two scenarios, the odds are higher for a downside correction. That’s because the broader market is short-term bearish, and the $109,012 support is already under intense pressure.