Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Could Retest $122K If Inflation Data Supports A Rate Cut

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is in a narrow range between $119,097 and $118,662
• Such price action indicates that a major breakout is coming
• Upcoming US inflation data is likely to trigger a price breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the red today, reflecting the relatively weak price action across all risk-on assets, including stocks. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $119,011, down by 2.22% in the day. However, the correction has not impacted Bitcoin’s trading volumes. 

BTC trading volumes are currently at $76.74 billion, unchanged for the day. This indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is not selling their coins despite the intraday correction. This can be attributed to a growing shift to long-term ownership, and the ongoing correction in the price of Bitcoin is due to temporary speculative factors.

Upcoming Inflation Data Keeping BTC Traders On Edge

The upcoming inflation data is the key factor driving Bitcoin’s price action today. Short-term traders are taking a backseat in the day as the data that will likely influence Bitcoin price action in the short term. If the data indicates that inflation remains elevated or rises due to the recent tariffs, it could mean a continued short-term correction for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. That would reduce the odds of the Fed lowering rates as expected in September.

However, if data says inflation is dropping, the odds of the Fed cutting rates could shoot up exponentially. The result is that investors would have a big incentive to go heavy on risk-on assets. Such data today could trigger a Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs.

⚠️ REMINDER

🇺🇸 CPI & Core CPI data hits tomorrow

A key read on U.S. inflation.

Markets will be watching closely and a softer print could fuel risk on moves but a hotter one might spark a pullback

Stay Cautious. pic.twitter.com/xD2Rsw3oyw

— Blockchain Babe (@BabyyBlockChain) August 11, 2025

Chart Analysts Point to Weakening Bitcoin Momentum

The weak momentum in the price of Bitcoin is also being driven by what chart analysts see as weak price action on the 1-day chart. After an attempt at a breakout on August 11, Bitcoin bulls were rejected, and the price was forced back to the $118,900 resistance level. The price opened lower today, August 12, and has shown weakness intraday. Some analysts see this as an ugly price action that could draw in short-selling and trigger a major BTC correction in the short term. The pivot towards short selling could also be driven by the fact that in the last 24 hours, over $440 million in long positions were liquidated.

I don't like this daily candle on #Bitcoin.

It has taken all the liquidity on the highs and immediately inversed towards the range high resistance.

Quite ugly daily candle.

Wouldn't be surprised if we'll test $116.8K before continuing. pic.twitter.com/BiYtBLEtfG

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 11, 2025

Rising Institutional Adoption Likely to Support Bitcoin Upside Momentum

Despite the increased bear strength in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin overall remains bullish. One of the key factors likely to keep pushing Bitcoin higher is institutional adoption. More companies are now creating Bitcoin treasuries, following the lead of Michael Saylor’s strategy. Many more are also investing in Bitcoin through ETFs. This growing adoption by big money will likely continue adding bullish momentum to Bitcoin. This is mainly premised on the scarce nature of Bitcoin, which means as long as demand is growing, Bitcoin will likely keep going up regardless of macroeconomic factors that affect other asset classes.

9/ Why this is bullish for Bitcoin

Institutional adoption depends on policy clarity and macro instability

Trump’s agenda offers both$BTC could see inflows not just from the US, but globally, as America shapes the tone pic.twitter.com/TVQexXHdZE

— Punisher (@0x_Punisher) August 11, 2025

Technical Analysis – BTC Trading In A Narrow Range

From the charts, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range between the $119,097 resistance and $118,662 support. Such a trade setup usually precedes a significant price event. It aligns perfectly with the upcoming news on US inflation data, which could trigger a significant price rally in either direction. 

If the data points to weakening inflation, BTC could rocket through the $119,097 resistance and retest the 48-hour high of $122,271. On the other hand, if the data is unfavorable, Bitcoin could drop through the $118,662 support and drop to $116,460 in the short term.