Bitcoin Could Drop to $77K Without Ending Its Bull Cycle in 2025: CryptoQuant CEO

Highlights:

• Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to drop to $77k in 2025 without entering a bear market.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETF investors hold a cost basis of $89,000, acting as strong support.
• Analyst predicts a Bitcoin surge in Q4 despite potential short-term dips and sideways trading.

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $77,000 in 2025 without breaking its bull market. In multiple posts on X on February 19, Ki said there is no bear market for Bitcoin “this year,” despite a month of sideways price action and the absence of momentum to reach $100,000. 

Ki Young Ju believes a 30% drop from a possible $110,000 all-time high, bringing Bitcoin to $77,000, aligns with past bull market corrections. CryptoQuant’s Ki expects higher levels to continue throughout the year despite the slow start. “I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” Ki stated. “We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.” A possible dip to $77,000 would still keep Bitcoin well above its previous cycle’s all-time highs, reinforcing its strength and reliability as a long-term asset.

Key Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch

Ju highlighted that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors hold an average cost basis of $89,000, which has served as a key support level since November. If Bitcoin’s price drops below this point, traders are likely to focus on identifying the next significant support zone.

On Binance, the breakeven price for traders is considerably lower at $59,000, indicating the level at which they neither profit nor lose. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners would begin to face losses if the price falls to $57,000, as mining costs would surpass earnings at that stage.

He pointed out that past bear markets in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018 started when Bitcoin dropped below miners’ cost bases. However, Bitcoin currently remains far from those risky levels.

#Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95K:

• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89K

• Binance Traders: $59K

• Mining Companies: $57K – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.

• Old Whales: $25K – Never breached historically. pic.twitter.com/QlfUx8bO08

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Surge in Q4 Despite Possible Short-Term Dips

Analysts are still positive about Bitcoin’s long-term future despite short-term swings. Timo Oinonen from CryptoQuant said in a blog post on Feb. 17 that the current cycle is not over. Bitcoin has risen about 60% since the April 2024 halving. He believes there could be a “sell in May” dip, followed by sideways trading in summer. Oinonen expects prices to rise in the fourth quarter, like in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2023. “A deeper correction could be multiple months or even a year away,” Oinonen concluded.

BTC Holds $96K Amid Crypto Market Turbulence

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $96,204, marking a 1% increase in the past 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency briefly dropped to a low of $93,000 during this period but later recovered significantly. This downward movement coincided with $95.55 million in Bitcoin market liquidations, according to Coinglass data. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin’s market dominance rose by 0.47% from the previous day, reaching 60%, indicating that altcoins continued to struggle in the market.