ZX Squared Capital Warns Bitcoin Could Drop Another 30% in 2026

Highlights:

• ZX Squared founder says Bitcoin is already in a deep bear market and could fall another 30% this year.
• The firm says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still drives the current downturn.
• Recent whale selling has added support to the cautious market outlook.

Crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital has shared a bearish view on Bitcoin, saying the market may stay under pressure in 2026. CK Zheng, founder of the firm, said Bitcoin is now in a deep bear market and could drop another 30% this year. Zheng based his bearish outlook mainly on Bitcoin’s well-known four-year market cycle. This cycle usually connects to Bitcoin’s halving events, which cut mining rewards about every four years and often lead to major market moves.

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🚨INVESTMENT FIRM WARNS BTC COULD DROP 30%

Bitcoin is “firmly in a deep bear market” and could fall another 30% in 2026, as per ZX Squared Capital.

He says Bitcoin’s 4-year boom-bust cycle keeps it a speculative asset rather than a safe haven like gold. pic.twitter.com/CzjdoJ1ZwJ

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) March 7, 2026

Zheng Says Speculative Trading Still Limits Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Case

The latest halving took place in April 2024. In past cycles, Bitcoin usually reached its peak about 16 to 18 months later before entering a longer correction. Bitcoin appears to have followed a similar path this time as well. The cryptocurrency climbed to a record high above $126,000 in October, around a year and a half after the latest halving. Since then, the price has fallen sharply and traded near $68,000, which suggests the market may already have entered the weaker phase of the cycle. 

Based on this historical pattern, Zheng argues that Bitcoin could still face additional losses before the market stabilizes. He also pointed to investor behavior as a key reason behind Bitcoin’s sharp price swings. Retail traders often rush in during strong rallies and then sell when the market turns lower. That pattern usually pushes prices even higher on the way up and makes the drop steeper during corrections.

Zheng said this behavior still makes BTC trade more like a speculative asset than a traditional safe-haven investment. Gold usually attracts buyers during periods of uncertainty, but Bitcoin’s large price swings still stop it from fully taking that role in global markets.

ZX Squared Capital also said institutional money still makes up only a small part of the wider crypto market. Even though interest from companies and exchange-traded products has grown, retail investors still drive most trading activity. 

Estimates show crypto ETFs and corporate Bitcoin holdings account for only about 10% of the total market. That leaves the market heavily influenced by retail sentiment, which can change quickly. This structure often increases volatility, especially during market downturns. When prices fall, panic selling can spread faster. At the same time, some companies that hold Bitcoin in their treasury may sell part of their holdings to cover financial needs, which can add more pressure on the market.

Santiment Data Suggests Bitcoin Correction May Still Have Room to Run

Recent market data has added to the cautious outlook. Santiment said retail investors have continued buying Bitcoin after its drop below $70,000, while large holders have started taking profits. The platform said wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin bought heavily between February 23 and March 3, when Bitcoin traded between $62,900 and $69,600.

However, once Bitcoin climbed to $74,000, those large holders began selling. Santiment stated that they have already offloaded approximately 66% of the Bitcoin they accumulated during that period. That trend suggests that short-term pressure may continue, even as smaller investors continue to buy the dip.

Santiment said this gap between retail buying and whale selling may be a warning sign. The firm noted that when smaller investors keep buying while large holders cut exposure, the correction often is not fully over. Market sentiment also remains weak, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index still in Extreme Fear.

Adding to that cautious view, analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin must hold the $67,000 to $68,000 range to avoid fresh downside. He said a break below that level could push Bitcoin back toward recent lows before the market sees a stronger recovery. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,568.22, reflecting a 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

Clearly not what you'd want to see, but again, it's Friday.

Friday is the classic selloff day lately, as markets are puking quite generally on Friday afternoon.

The Nasdaq is giving it back too.

If #Bitcoin doesn't find support in this $67-68K region, then we're likely going… pic.twitter.com/6br5sbI2Sf

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 6, 2026

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