XRP Price Forecast – Why XRP Could Rally to $4 Soon

Highlights:

• XRP price is trading around the $2.21 resistance
• A push through $2.21 could push XRP to $4
• XRP could get a boost from broader market momentum

XRP is experiencing another surge today, rising by 3.48% to $2.21. This is mainly driven by improvements in the macro environment, XRP-specific developments, and some revelations associated with regulatory dialogue.

Strong Macro Fundamentals Support XRP

XRP’s rise was preceded by US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a forthcoming trade agreement with the UK. The announcement sparked a bullish sentiment for investments globally. This comes shortly after news that the US and China were progressing in ending the trade war. Both announcements have helped lift risk assets, with XRP among the notable beneficiaries. 

THE UK TRADE DEAL: 🚨 🚨

At the heart of the US-UK trade deal is a simple idea: lower barriers, higher profits. The US is slashing tariffs on British steel, aluminum, and cars, giving UK exporters a break and American consumers better prices. In return, the UK is dialing back… pic.twitter.com/V9GMmHnCc6

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) May 8, 2025

SEC Internal Emails Boost XRP Investor Sentiment

XRP’s momentum has also been boosted by Coinbase’s release of almost 10,000 internal documents from government agencies, including the SEC, obtained via FOIA requests. The documents glimpse the discussions regarding classifying some of the largest cryptocurrencies.

– 2019 SEC email acknowledging the “crypto regulatory gap,” years before the SEC argued that there was no such gap.
– 2023 email from the NYAG’s Office asking the SEC to submit an amicus brief in their KuCoin case arguing that ETH is a security. Rather than clear that up, SEC… pic.twitter.com/BMgkdSS5Q3

— paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) May 7, 2025

XRP came up during internal SEC deliberations. The agency’s staff considered whether XRP may possess security features and even the possible implications to the XRP blockchain if Ripple Labs were to “go away” or shut down.

The amount of focus from regulators has always been a gray area for holders of XRP. That said, things are improving. The SEC now has a more relaxed stance on enforcement actions against industry participants like Coinbase, hinting at a more moderate stance on cryptocurrency supervision.

On-Chain and Technical Metrics Point to XRP Price Strength

On the technical side, XRP maintains its position above critical support levels. The token’s price bounced back from its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 2.08 on May 6, reaching as high as 2.17 intraday, which aligns with the 50-day SMA. Analysts see retaining these levels as critical for XRP’s further recovery.

$XRP showing clear consolidation after recent uptrend. Price action hovering near 2.13 with multiple tests of resistance at 2.16-2.17 range. Cautious long entry below current market makes sense with tight risk parameters. Decent R:R setup with clear invalidation point.

Long C2…

— $TRUST (@trustme_bros) May 7, 2025

Whales Accumulating XRP Strengthen Bullish Case

Whales are also increasingly bullish on XRP price. Santiment’s data indicates wallet addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have increased their holdings to 9.44% from 8.24%. This indicates that confident large holders appreciate the price value and buy the asset during market dips. These whales are crucial to stabilizing prices, as their buying activity during downturns creates a price floor capable of attracting smaller retail investors and reducing market volatility.

The number of addresses holding 10,000+ #XRP is above 300,000.
Smart money moving? pic.twitter.com/7kcnkaPaf7

— Wolfblockhero 🐺 💹🧲 (@wolfblockheroo) May 7, 2025

XRP Open Interest on the Rise

Contrary to the bullish observation, the short-term market perception remains mixed. Open Interest (OI) for XRP currently stands at $3.65 billion, up 0.32%. However, trading volume decreased 17% to $3.9 billion during the same period. This decline suggests that traders are waiting for a more definitive price breakout before injecting capital.

Interesting exchanges where #XRP open interest is up. Is foreign interest on the rise? pic.twitter.com/zyHS8K1oHh

— KanakaCrypto808 (@KanakaCrypto808) March 5, 2025

XRP is seeing demand, with analysts stating it needs to defend the range of 1.83 and 2.00 to keep the current uptrend intact. Further, if this range sustains, the token would have a clear pathway to retest the all-time highs, which were noted above $3.40 in Early 2018.

Technical Analysis – XRP Price Trading at Resistance

XRP is oscillating around the $2.21 resistance, after a pump earlier in the day. If bulls breach the $2.21 resistance, prices as high as $4 could be attainable in the short term.

The rising bullish momentum across the market would drive this. However, if bears take control and push XRP lower, XRP price could drop to around $2.17. 

Recap

In terms of XRP’s price milestones, achieving $4 is perhaps the most significant milestone, marking it as a psychological and technical barrier. Whether XRP reaches this milestone hinges on a convergence of factors, including regulatory clarity, sustained macro optimism, and continued strength on-chain. Given that large investors are positioning for the upside and policymakers are sending mixed but improving signals, XRP appears poised for further gains.