Will Bitcoin Reach $100K in Q4? Analyst Weighs In on Driving Factors

Highlights:

• In a recent post, a market analyst weighed in on the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100K in this year’s Q4.
• The expert supported his claims with Bitcoin’s post-halving events trends.
• Aside from the historical trends, the analyst highlighted the global economy, ETFs, exchanges, and political factors as BTC’s price drivers.

In one of his most recent tweets, renowned expert Ash Crypto analyzed the propensity of Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $100K in this year’s Q4. Interestingly, the analyst’s submission emerged amid Bitcoin’s unimpressive market showings that have kept the token below $65,000 for the past few days.

Despite the challenges, Ash Crypto seems confident about BTC reaching $100K in this cycle, citing past trends that played out after the Bitcoin halving event. Aside from using historical events to support his claims, Ash Crypto spotlighted other existing driving factors.

Relationships Between Bitcoin’s Past Halving Event and the Token’s Price Breakouts

In his post, Ash Crypto noted that after each Bitcoin halving show, the flagship cryptocurrency enters a consolidation period of about six months. He supported his assertion by spotlighting timelines before BTC price breakouts following the 2016 and 2020 halving events.

Per the expert, Bitcoin’s rally following the 2016 and 2020 halving events occurred after consolidation periods, spanning 161 days and 175 days, respectively. Going further, he noted that for 2024, BTC has consolidated for 161 days post-halving show. Hence, chances abound that the token price rally will likely happen in two to three weeks from now.

WILL BITCOIN HIT $100K IN Q4?
 
THE ANSWER IS IN THE PAST HALVING CYCLES
 
AFTER EACH HALVING, BTC GOES THROUGH A CONSOLATION PHASE OF AROUND 6 MONTHS 
 
2016: 161 DAYS OF CONSOLIDATION BEFORE BREAKOUT 
 
2020: 175 DAYS OF CONSOLIDATION BEFORE BREAKOUT 
 
IN 2024, BTC HAS BEEN IN… pic.twitter.com/fqf0z8UKbC

— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) October 5, 2024

Global Economy Highlighted Among Bitcoin’s Price Surge Driving Factors

As stated earlier, Ash Crypto’s assertion contained prevailing factors and events, spewing favorable BTC prognosis. The basis of all the events is the positive global economic changes. Ash Crypto spotlighted several of such modifications in his tweet.

Notedly, the impact of the United States Fed rate cut was among the price appreciation catalysts. In his tweet, the expert noted that the Fed has started cutting rates. For context, the impact of the slashed rate began some weeks ago after the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point deduction in its fixed interest rate. Consequently, the fed funds rate dropped to 4.75% – 5%.

Aside from the U.S. Fed rate cut, other selling points in the global economy include the global M2 money supply surge. According to Ash Crypto, the M2 money supply struck a new all-time high (ATH) when its valuation touched about $107 trillion. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has followed in the footsteps of the U.S. to lower its key policy rate.

BREAKING: BOJ has lowered its key policy rate again by 25bps (0.25%) to 6.5%.

This is after the Fed reduced rates by 50bps (0.50%) a few weeks ago.

BOJ also expects the recent Beryl-inflicted inflation spike to moderate sooner than projected. pic.twitter.com/RSiwGiay3P

— Marc Gayle #GoldenWindowJA (@marcgayle) September 30, 2024

Russia’s cryptocurrency acceptance for cross-border transactions made the market expert’s list of Bitcoin’s possible price drivers. The tweet noted that the multinational trade involving Russia and other nations will begin in November.

It is worth noting that after years of trying to salvage its economy, Russia had no choice but to embrace cryptocurrencies. Finally, China’s plans to print $280 billion to boost its economy also spewed good prospects, which makes the BTC price breakout prediction more feasible.

ETFs and Exchanges Flow Patterns

According to Ash Crypto’s post, Bitcoin’s Exchange Traded Funds have started accumulating again, underscoring investors’ interest in the asset. For exchanges, the expert mentioned that the amount of BTC entering trading platforms has dropped to a reasonable level. Hence, it implies that holders are no longer selling.

Meanwhile, another notable mention from Ash Crypto’s submission was the proposed FTX distribution, which would likely happen this quarter. Also, Trump’s winning odds have increased, according to Ash Crypto. All these factors will be crucial in catalyzing Bitcoin’s unprecedented rally to the $100K level.