Toncoin Price Analysis – TON Eyes $4 After Pavel Durov’s Post Triggers Parabolic Breakout

Highlights:

• Toncoin jumped 25% to $2.69, while trading volume rose 84% to $1.83 billion.
• Pavel Durov’s low-fee trading update and Telegram integration boosted investor confidence.
• TON’s breakout and broader market strength could support a move toward $4.

Toncoin (TON) has made a strong comeback today after close to two years of price weakness. In the last 24 hours, TON has outperformed the broader market, up 25% to $2.69. Tokenoin trading volumes are also up 84% intraday to $1.83 billion. The rising volumes and the price hint at potentially even higher gains for Toncoin in the short to medium term. There are several factors supporting this rally, both coming from Toncoin itself and the broader market.

Pavel Durov’s Announcement Sends Toncoin Price UP

One of the biggest factors driving Toncoin is an announcement by Pavel Durov, Telegram’s founder, about its future. Durov announced that TON trading fees had dropped 6X to near zero. This is a big deal, as it could attract new users and help drive up demand for TON for everyday transactions in the long term. Durov also announced that Telegram, one of the world’s largest social networking sites, was replacing the Ton Foundation as the key driver of Toncoin’s future direction.

LATEST: ⚡ Toncoin surged more than 36% after Pavel Durov said Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the network’s driving force and become its largest validator. pic.twitter.com/nzCY2xCrjD

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) May 5, 2026

Durov further noted that Toncoin’s focus will now be on technological superiority. Essentially, Toncoin will now compete on superior tech within its line. The announcement has triggered excitement amongst investors that TON could now be fully integrated into Telegram, for payments and other functions. This is a big deal, given that Telegram has a vast userbase that could drive demand for Toncoin to new highs in the foreseeable future.  The demand could be sustained by the declining fees, which would see more users opt for TON payments, within and outside the Telegram ecosystem.

TON Undervalued Compared to Last All-Time Highs

These developments come at a time when Toncoin is significantly undervalued relative to its previous all-time high. Previously, Toncoin was outperforming almost all top 100 cryptocurrencies. This rally saw it hit an all-time high of $8. However, the arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov in France two years ago abruptly took the shine off Toncoin.

The price dropped to under a dollar before the ongoing rebound, which has pushed it back above $2. However, even at $2, Toncoin is still massively undervalued relative to its last all-time high. This makes it attractive to investors seeking strong gains, especially following Pavel’s announcement. Even a retest of the last all-time high could still make TON an attractive buy to investors buying now. 

Bullish Sentiment Across the Market Could Send Toncoin Price Higher

Outside of Telegram-specific news, TON stands to benefit from the improving sentiment across the market. Bitcoin continues to push higher after recently pushing through major resistance at $79,300. As it continues to push higher, major altcoins such as Toncoin are likely to follow. 

A key factor likely to sustain this momentum is the return of risk-on sentiment in the financial markets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to move in the same direction as US stock indices. Currently, major US indices are making new highs every day. As this sentiment strengthens, capital could continue to flow strongly into altcoins that are already showing strong potential, such as TON.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq surged to record-high closes on US-Iran deal hopes while strong earnings from AMD sparked a rally in chipmakers and other AI-related stocks https://t.co/fXgF5dZjPX pic.twitter.com/yUlVhbVKlK

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 7, 2026

Technical Analysis – TON In A Parabolic Breakout

Toncoin is in a parabolic breakout that started on May 4. The rally has seen TON take out multi-month resistance at $1.89 and continue gaining. If the current rally continues, TON could soon test $4. However, if the bulls lose momentum, two scenarios could play out. 

The first is a consolidation around $2, which is now a key psychological support level. The other scenario is where bears take control, push the Toncoin price through $2 and $1.89 support, and drive it back below $1. Of these scenarios, a rally to $4 or higher is more likely. That’s because of the adoption TON is set to gain now that Telegram is the main validator.