Tom Lee Reduces Bitcoin Forecast, $250K Year-End Target Unlikely

Highlights:

• Tom Lee stepped back from $250,000 Bitcoin target, saying it may not reach it.
• He said Bitcoin could stay above $100,000 and might even reach a new high.
• Lee highlighted that Bitcoin often makes most yearly gains within just ten key trading days.

BitMine chair Tom Lee has stepped back from his earlier push for Bitcoin to hit $250,000 this year. His tone changed during a Wednesday talk on CNBC, where he only gave a soft “maybe” when asked if Bitcoin could retest its October high of $125,100 before the year ends. He kept a gentle outlook, saying it still seems likely that Bitcoin could stay above $100,000 and possibly touch a new high.

Earlier last year, he kept repeating the $250,000 target and continued saying it until October. His stance was different from what other crypto figures were saying. Galaxy Digital chief Mike Novogratz warned in the same month that something “crazy” would have to happen for Bitcoin to reach that level.

LATEST: Tom Lee says he's no longer sure of a $250,000 year-end price for Bitcoin, and it's a "maybe." pic.twitter.com/Ln2X7c3R71

— Coinvo (@Coinvo) November 27, 2025

Bitcoin’s Volatility Highlights Short-Term Gains and Historical Forecasts

Lee’s latest comments came after several weeks of weak market action. Bitcoin has been sliding since Oct. 10, following a $19 billion crypto-wide liquidation that started after US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The price only moved back above $90,000 on Wednesday, after staying below that level for six days in a row. November usually treats Bitcoin better. Data from CoinGlass shows November has been the strongest month on average since 2013. Even with that history, selling pressure stayed firm until this week.

Lee explained that Bitcoin often makes most of its yearly gains in a very small time window. He said the asset usually sees its biggest rise within just 10 trading days each year. This pattern has been discussed before as well. Bitwise chief Hunter Horsley mentioned the same thing in February 2024. He warned that, based on history, anyone who misses Bitcoin’s best 10 days ends up missing almost all of the returns. 

Last year’s data also fits this idea. Bitcoin’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days averaged a -15% loss. Economist Timothy Peterson also shared a hopeful view earlier this week. He suggested that the market may have already found its bottom, or it could reach that bottom within the next few days.

The chance that Bitcoin may not reach Lee’s new target has brought attention back to his past predictions. This is not the first time one of his forecasts has missed. In January 2018, he said Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022. That did not happen on time. Bitcoin only touched that level in October this year. Some of his older predictions were closer. In July 2017, he said Bitcoin could reach $20,000 in a basic case by 2022, and $55,000 in a stronger case. Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and then hit $55,000 in March 2021. 

BTC Nears $90K but Market Momentum Remains Weak

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trying to reach $90,000, but the market is still risky. It needs to close above $89,000–$90,000 first. Then it could move to $91,500 and later break $93,500–$95,000. The Risk-Off Signal must show low risk to confirm strong buying. Without momentum, any rise will be short-term, not a real recovery.

Bitcoin is attacking $90K, but we are still in a high-risk environment and momentum has not ignited.

Bitcoin must brew momentum to break the compression forming since the ATH.

The bullish path is clear:

🔸A first close inside the $89K–$90K zone.
🔸Consolidation above this… pic.twitter.com/dvUSU7sUTX

— Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) November 26, 2025