Solana Price Prediction – SOL Risks Drop to $128 If Market Remains Weak

Highlights:

• Solana weakening at weekly resistance is showing signs of weakness
• Weakness driven by fear of a repeat of the 2021 bear market
• Fundamentals getting stronger could invalidate a correction

Solana is slightly in the green today, reflecting the overall slow day across the altcoin market. When going to press, SOL was trading at $168.16, up by 0.46% in the day. Solana’s trading volumes were also low in the day, down by 9.88% to $3.55 billion. Solana’s low intra-day trading volumes point to a low uptake by investors. It’s reflective of the low-level activity in the market, as investors wait for clear direction from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Action Could Push Solana Lower

Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly a mirror image of its price in 2021 before the crash happened. This correction led to a massive correction in altcoin prices. Solana went from over $200 to prices below $50. As such, the fact that Bitcoin is sending similar signals could cause investors to start to take cover in case Solana experiences a similar correction again. Big market players are already making moves that could add to the uncertainty and possibly trigger a correction. 

Whales Likely Liquidating SOL

One such move is data indicating that whales have been withdrawing huge amounts of Solana from Binance. The withdrawn Solana is being sent to Wintermute and other exchange wallets. This could indicate that whales are liquidating millions of dollars worth of Solana but do not want to cause panic if they do so through centralized exchanges.

Such moves could trigger FUD and trigger a selloff in SOL in the short term. Already, Solana’s price appears to be stalling at a critical resistance level, a pointer that short-term buying momentum could be fading.

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

BINANCE ARE DUMPING ALL THEIR SOLANA pic.twitter.com/SDwRSnsq99

— Crypto Beast (@cryptobeastreal) May 15, 2025

However, there is a chance that Solana will pull a surprise and rally. For starters, despite the low momentum, Bitcoin has still managed to hold above a critical resistance level in the week. This means the late 2021 price action may be invalidated. That’s especially true now that institutions and nation-states are adopting Bitcoin. If Bitcoin pulls a surprise move and rallies off current price levels, sentiment would likely turn bullish for SOL. Such could see Solana test new highs within the foreseeable future.

Solana Forming A Falling Wedge Pattern – Likely Bullish

Solana’s price action has a setup that makes such a price move possible. Some chart experts point out that Solana is forming a falling wedge pattern. This pattern usually occurs before a violent breakout in an asset’s price. Such a breakout is likely to happen if Bitcoin not only holds above resistance but also starts to send signals of a possible rally.

$SOL/usdt 4 hour

Lovely new idea for $SOL –> this 4 hour falling wedge is stunning, picture perfect and looking ready to go as soon as $BTC & $ETH allow it 🎯 pic.twitter.com/tJuISpnicQ

— Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) May 17, 2025

Solana Fundamentals Getting Stronger

It is not only the technical charts that support a possible breakout for Solana. The fundamentals are also increasingly bullish. One of these fundamentals is that major organizations embrace Solana for asset tokenization.

For instance, Galaxy Digital has announced that it is holding talks with the SEC to launch a tokenized version of its stock on the Solana blockchain. This is a big deal because if approved, even more institutions would take a similar route, significantly adding to the demand for Solana. Solana already has a dominant position in other important markets, such as the fast-growing meme coin market. Combining all these could trigger a price rally to new highs in a bull market.

Galaxy Digital @galaxyhq is in talks with the SEC to tokenize its own stock and other equities, per report. They join Sol Strategies @solstrategies_ in the race to be the first NASDAQ regulated tokenized equity traded onchain.

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) May 17, 2025

Technical Analysis – SOL Weakening Below Resistance

Solana bulls are currently showing weakness below the $184 resistance level, reflecting the price action across the market.

If bears take control at this point, a correction to $128.34 could follow. However, if bulls take control and push SOL through the $184.0 resistance, a rally to $200 or higher could follow.