Morgan Stanley Warns Investors to Secure Gains as Bitcoin Enters Cooling Phase

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trading below $105K as analysts warn the market has entered the fall season in its four-year cycle.
• The market liquidity slows with ETF and stablecoin inflows dropping, signaling weaker investor activity across crypto assets.
• Morgan Stanley warns institutional demand may help cushion Bitcoin losses as traders prepare for a crypto winter.

Bitcoin’s latest market phase has raised concerns among strategists at Morgan Stanley. The bank’s analysts believe Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year cycle. This stage usually signals the end of bullish momentum and the beginning of a potential downturn.

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🚨 LATEST: Morgan Stanley Says $BTC Is in "Fall Season," Asks To Take Profits Now

Morgan Stanley strategist warns Bitcoin has entered a fall phase where investors should secure gains before potential crypto winter downturn. pic.twitter.com/pjWGYTMZCE

— Unchained (@Unchained_pod) November 12, 2025

Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin’s price history follows a “three-up, one-down” pattern. Speaking on the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, he explained that this pattern suggests a harvest period before a slowdown. “We are in the fall season right now. Fall is the time to take your gains,” Galindo said.

Bitcoin’s recent price performance supports this cautious outlook. On November 5, the asset slipped below $99,000, losing a key support level. Analysts view this indicator as a vital gauge of long-term sentiment. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said the move below the average shows a clear shift in tone. Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima also called it a confirmation of a technical bear market.

The significance of Bitcoin losing the 365-day MA:
It was the final confirmation to the start of the 2022 bear market.

The price needs to cross back above it quickly. pic.twitter.com/9ChB28Zl5g

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 4, 2025

Market Liquidity Tightens as ETF and Stablecoin Flows Stall

Market data shows that liquidity has slowed across the crypto sector. Wintermute, a major market-making firm, said inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds, and digital asset treasuries have declined. The three regions have been the primary crypto market depth drivers since the beginning of this year.

Wintermute observed that inflows have stabilized, indicating reduced activity of large investors. The decline indicates traders are less committed to new capital at a time when prices are still questionable. This shift in trend is consistent with the recent range-bound performance of Bitcoin. The coin has been between $106,000 and $116,000 in two weeks, which indicates a consolidation period.

Liquidity drives crypto cycles, and now, the money has stopped flowing in

Stablecoins, ETFs, and DATs have grown from $180B to $560B since early 2024, but momentum has slowed

Capital is rotating internally, not entering fresh → rallies die fast and breadth keeps narrowing pic.twitter.com/h9Rp2fJAcE

— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) November 6, 2025

Bitfinex’s latest market report also points to heavy selling from long-term holders. The exchange estimates that holders have distributed about 104,000 BTC per month, the highest level since July. Analysts say this steady selling pressure keeps prices capped and limits upside movement. Unless ETF inflows or new demand appear soon, Bitcoin could remain under pressure near $106,000 or even test $100,000.

The broader market reflects similar caution. Analysts believe the combination of reduced liquidity and increased profit-taking fits the “fall season” narrative described by Morgan Stanley’s strategists.

Morgan Stanley Warns Institutional Demand May Cushion Decline

Despite short-term weakness, institutional investors continue to show interest in Bitcoin. Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokers and exchanges at Morgan Stanley Research, said many investors now view Bitcoin as “digital gold.” He added that the asset has become a potential hedge against inflation and currency risks.

Cyprys explained that ETFs have made it easier for institutions to gain exposure. However, he noted that allocations move slowly due to internal processes and long-term mandates. Even so, data show steady institutional participation.

According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold more than $137 billion in total assets. Analysts feel that this institutional demand will soften the fall of Bitcoin. It could also play a role in diminishing volatility as the market adapts to slower liquidity.

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