Key Indicator Shows Bitcoin’s Growth Isn’t Over: Bullish Year Ahead, Analyst Says

Highlights:

• Chapo predicts Bitcoin’s MVRV will reach 3.2 before the cycle peaks in 2025.
• The MVRV ratio at 1.95 indicates Bitcoin holders have nearly doubled their investment.
• CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno warns Bitcoin may drop further before recovering from corrections.

In a Feb. 26 post on X, Crypto analyst and Assure DeFi CEO Chapo said Bitcoin’s Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) indicates that BTC may still have room to grow in the current cycle. He predicts the MVRV ratio will reach approximately 3.2 before this cycle peaks in 2025. According to Bitbo data, MVRV is currently at 1.95.

Remove emotions. Focus on what the data says. Simplify your thesis.

MRVR is my favorite indicator to use to determine where we are in a macro cycle. MRVR = Market Value to Realized Value (Ratio).

Bitcoin MRVR shows the ratio between the current price and the average price of… pic.twitter.com/JWe6V4B50x

— Chapo (@El_Crypto_Chapo) February 26, 2025

MVRV Indicates Bitcoin’s Growth Potential and Market Trends

MVRV helps determine if a crypto asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing Bitcoin’s current price to the average buying price. This helps show how much profit the average BTC holder has and how much more selling might happen before holders start taking losses.

According to Bitbo data, MVRV is currently at 1.95, which means the average holder has almost doubled their investment. In past cycles, MVRV has spiked sharply at market tops when more people take profits than buy. This makes Bitcoin riskier for new investors. He said, “We aren’t there yet.” Chapo expects MVRV to reach 3.2, suggesting 2025 could remain bullish before the market peaks.

The last time Bitcoin’s MVRV reached this level was in April 2021, when its price jumped to $58,253—rising 101% from $28,994 at the start of the year. Chapo explained that when profit-takers sell to new buyers, the cost basis drops, causing the MVRV to decline. For instance, when Bitcoin dropped to $53,949 on Sept. 7 last year, the MVRV declined to 1.71. Chapo noted that this is a healthy sign, as new buyers usually hold until they see profits, requiring a higher price.

He stated:

“If history tells us anything, it’s that MVRV will spike vertically during a market top and reach a point at which profit-taking exceeds new buying interest, and the risk/reward for new entrants is no longer there.”

However, CryptoQuant’s research head, Julio Moreno, warns that Bitcoin may drop further before recovering. He explains that all valuation indicators are in correction mode, and the MVRV is below its 365-day average. While the MVRV helps track Bitcoin’s value, Moreno says the recovery might take time.

Don't call Bitcoin's price bottom just yet.
All valuation metrics are in correction territory. It can take more time.

For example, MVRV below its 365-day moving average. This is a simple, yet powerful, indicator. pic.twitter.com/bQ3mWMLBGE

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) February 26, 2025

Crypto Market Dip is a Temporary Retreat, Not a Reversal – Binance CEO

In a Feb. 25 post, Binance CEO Richard Teng also highlighted the recent sharp decline, stating that the crypto market isn’t reversing but experiencing a temporary retreat due to macroeconomic changes. The crypto market dropped sharply as Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time since November. The decline followed Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. 

Teng recalled Bitcoin’s 2022 dip below $20,000 before rebounding. He sees this drop as temporary, not a weakness. He noted rising institutional interest, with strong ETF inflows and new applications, which will trigger the BTC price.

Here's my thoughts on the recent market turbulence: It's important to view this as a tactical retreat, not a reversal.

Crypto has been here before and bounced back even stronger. Here's why we should stay optimistic. ⤵️

A thread 🧵

— Richard Teng (@_RichardTeng) February 25, 2025

At press time, Bitcoin’s price is $85,681, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $69.11 billion.