Ethereum Surges 17% as Bloomberg Analysts Raise Spot ETH ETF Approval Odds to 75%

On May 20, Ethereum (ETH) surged over 17%. This spike came after Bloomberg Senior ETF Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised the approval odds for an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) from 25% to 75%.

Renewed Optimism for Spot Ether ETF Approval

In a post on X on Monday, Balchunas mentioned that he and James Seyffart were raising their odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75%. He said the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) probably encountered political pressure as their previous position showed minimal interaction with ETF applicants. Balchunas also mentioned that the SEC is reportedly asking exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq to update their filings. However, the regulator has not officially confirmed this matter.

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Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they’d be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

Seyffart posted a similar comment on the social media platform, stating that Ether ETF approvals have seen a positive shift this week.

Things are taking a turn for the better on Spot #ethereum ETF approvals this week. Upping our odds to 75%. https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

SEC Approval Process for ETFs

Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and president of the ETF Store, gave insight into the SEC approval process of ETFs and how it would impact the forthcoming decisions. He stated that the SEC must approve both S-1s (registration statements) and19b-4s (exchange rule changes) for an ETF to launch.

SEC decision deadline this week on spot eth ETFs…

SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch.

Technically possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s (esp given reported lack of engagement here).

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) May 19, 2024

19b-4s is the filing that national exchanges like Nasdaq or NYSE send to the SEC to get approval for adding a new product to their trading platforms. On the other hand, S-1s refer to the initial registration forms that explain how a fund will be managed and follow the price of its underlying asset.

Geraci suggests it’s “technically possible for the SEC to approve 19b-4s” initially. He also notes that the SEC might delay processing the S-1s, given their reported lack of involvement. However, Seyffart mentioned that if 19b-4s are approved, it would only be a matter of “when” not “if ” before S-1s fillings are approved. He also said their increased odds are only for “the 19b-4 May 23 deadline,” referring to VanEck’s spot ETH ETFs approval.

That said, if we’re correct and we see these theoretical approvals later this week. It *should* mean that S-1 approvals are a matter of ‘When’ not ‘If’…

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

Ether ETF Deadline Looms

Deadlines are quickly approaching. The first deadline for ETF approval is May 23, when the SEC must decide on VanEck’s ETH ETF filing. The next day, the ARK21 Shares Ethereum ETF will also expire. The final deadline for this month is May 30, when the SEC must decide on the Hashdex Nasdaq ETH ETF filing.

Read More: 15000 ETH Shift by Whale Sparks Speculation Amid Price Increase

Market Reaction to the News

Following the latest prediction, Ethereum’s price has significantly increased. According to Coinmarketcap, it has surged by 17.83% in the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, ETH is currently trading at 3,655.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Moreover, Ether liquidations also spiked during the price increase. According to crypto liquidations tracker CoinGlass data, $105.14 million worth of ETH positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.

Source: CoinGlass

Beyond ETH, the price of other tokens also rallied. The crypto market is up 7.57% over 24 hours. The price of Bitcoin rose by about 6.11% to $70,900 in the last 24 hours.

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