Ethereum Price Outlook: ETH Could Rally to $4,600 on Favorable US Jobs Data

Highlights:

• Ethereum is consolidating between $4341.2 and $4373.5 support
• Weak jobs data could send Ethereum through $4341.2 resistance
• Strengthening Ethereum fundamentals further makes the case for bulls 

Ethereum (ETH) is in the red today, albeit mildly. When writing, Ethereum traded at $4322.30, down by 1.12% intraday. However, even as the price drops, Ethereum trading volumes have gone up during the day. At press time, Ethereum trading volumes were 7.67% up to stand at $38.39 billion. This could indicate that short-term holders are liquidating their Ethereum holdings out of fear that the price could go lower in the short term. The price dynamics around Ethereum have a lot to do with what is happening in the broader market. 

Upcoming US Jobs Data Keeping Ethereum Traders On Edge

On Friday, September 5, the US will release its August labor market data. The expectation is that if the data points to further weakening in the labor market, the Federal Reserve could be pushed to cut rates. However, there is also the fact that the data may not come out as the markets are expecting, which could diminish hopes of a rate cut, at least immediately.

Short-term traders expect a lot of volatility on September 5. Since cryptocurrencies tend to be more volatile than other asset classes, traders may stay away from the market until the data is released. This may explain Ethereum’s price action, and the volume data hinting at short-term holders exiting their positions.

🚨 Big Jobs Report Friday🚨 Markets are watching job data closely given last month's surprise weakness.

Plus important data for Feds:

Jobs: JOLTS, ADP Jobs, Jobless Claims
Inflation: ISM services, PMI, Beige book

❤️this, keep it on hand and see 👇 pic.twitter.com/3p4NsBKNz3

— Peter Tarr (@ProfitsTaken) September 1, 2025

Movements By Some Ethereum Whales Creates Short-Term Uncertainty

There are also concerns that some Ethereum whales and institutional players may be starting to offload their holdings. Recently, an institution sold 3819 Ethereum at $4286 per coin. An Ethereum whale from the early days moved 5100 Ethereum within the same period. While they did not sell, this has raised some concern that they could be looking to sell.

All these moves indicate that big players are increasingly aware of the risk of volatility and may be looking to hedge with other assets. Gold, for instance, is currently hitting record highs, an indicator that investors may be rebalancing into risk-off assets as market uncertainty remains elevated.

This whale further withdrew 12,869 $ETH, worth $55.59M, from #OKX.

Now, the whale holds 17,969 $ETH, worth $77.62M.

Address: 0x3e649a45ef11A36ac39FebCb8Ce9BA515c817520

Data @nansen_ai https://t.co/CBpWF6xS4G pic.twitter.com/urbQoJk6sn

— Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) September 3, 2025

Ethereum Core Fundamentals Boost Prospects for Long-Term Growth

However, outside of the short-term volatility, the odds favour an Ethereum rally going into the future. For context, Ethereum has deeply entrenched itself in the fast-growing RWA market. With big players like BlackRock building the tokenized economy on Ethereum, the odds are that Ethereum’s value will grow over time. Ethereum also continues to make network upgrades that pretty much guarantee its adoption going into the future. For instance, the Fusaka upgrade is coming online soon. This upgrade will make Ethereum even more usable by institutional players. Going by fundamentals, Ethereum’s long-term trajectory will likely be up.

the latest proposed fusaka timeline breaks a lot of the guidelines set out by the ethereum protocol upgrade process document fyi, not just the one that recommends 30 days between client releases and the first testnet pic.twitter.com/gRYxnfAIWZ

— Christine D. Kim (@christine_dkim) August 29, 2025

Possible Rate Cuts Favor An Ethereum Breakout

Even in the short term, the volatility around interest rates will likely favour Ethereum. That’s because the Federal Reserve has already hinted that it will cut interest rates this month. And with the economy increasingly adding fewer jobs, the odds are high that Friday, September 5, data will only increase the odds of a rate cut. The result is that risk-on assets such as Ethereum could be headed for a rocket rally.

Technical Analysis – Ethereum Trading In A Narrow Range

Ethereum is currently consolidating in a narrow range between the $4341.2 resistance and $4373.5 support. This indicates that a breakout in either direction is coming and could be triggered by the upcoming US jobs report.

If the jobs report adds weight to the expectations of a rate cut, Ethereum could rally to $4611.9 in the short term. On the other hand, if the data negates hopes of a rate cut, Ethereum could breach the $4373.5 support and drop to around $4000.