Bloomberg Analysts Raise Crypto ETF Approval Odds to Above 90%

Highlights:

• Bloomberg analysts say altcoin ETFs have a strong chance of approval this year.
• XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana ETFs now have approval odds near or above 90%.
• SEC may view major altcoins as commodities, supporting more ETF applications.

Bloomberg analysts seem increasingly optimistic about the approval of spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year. Their confidence follows recent interactions with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding several ETF applications. James Seyffart mentioned on X that he and Eric Balchunas now place approval odds at 90% or higher, viewing the SEC’s engagement as a positive sign.

Spot XRP ETF Odds Jump to 95% as SEC Signals Soften

Approval chances for spot XRP ETFs have risen from 85% to 95%, showing increased optimism. Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche ETFs are now each estimated to have a 90% approval likelihood. Still, some assets remain behind. SUI and Tron, for instance, face lower approval odds or later timelines.

SUI holds just a 60% approval chance and lacks a futures market, while Tron’s application isn’t expected until 2026. In a follow-up post, James Seyffart explained that approvals could arrive as early as this summer, or possibly by October or later. He emphasized it’s now a matter of when, not if.

NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025

Analysts also said the SEC likely sees coins like Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano as commodities. This means the SEC may not fully control them as securities. Optimism increased after the SEC asked Solana ETF issuers to revise their filings with clearer details on in-kind redemptions and staking permissions. This led some firms that hadn’t filed yet to quickly submit their Solana ETF applications last week.

Meanwhile, the SEC is also reviewing other crypto products, including TRON, TRUMP, and ETFs tied to staking. Seyffart believes these funds are currently off the table because a 19b-4 filing hasn’t been submitted yet, though he expects it will be soon. 

Spot Crypto ETFs Gain Ground, But Wider Launch May Take Months

So far, the SEC has only allowed spot crypto ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. These ETFs let people invest in crypto prices without owning the coins. They’ve brought in tens of billions of dollars. Experts now believe crypto ETFs will stay in traditional finance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke records for new money. BlackRock’s IBIT fund passed $70 billion in assets this month. It’s now one of the fastest-growing ETFs ever in the U.S. But Ethereum ETFs are growing slowly.

Many Ether holders are still below their buying price, based on blockchain data. As interest rises, firms like Franklin Templeton have filed for new ETFs, including ones for XRP and Solana. The SEC is now taking public comments on these proposals. Balchunas and Seyffart expect the ETFs to get approval. But they said the final approval and launch could still take a few more months.