Bitcoin Rally Could Last Until 2026, Says Arthur Hayes

Highlights:

• Arthur Hayes expects the Bitcoin rally to continue through 2026, supported by rate cuts.
• He believes current macroeconomic trends now influence crypto, rather than old halving cycles.
• Hayes predicts stablecoins and altcoins could see trillions as funds move beyond banks.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and prominent crypto expert, predicts Bitcoin’s rally could continue until 2026 and believes the traditional four-year cycle followed by many traders is no longer reliable. Bitcoin’s price has often followed halving events, creating a four-year pattern of rises and falls. Hayes disagrees with this idea now. In a podcast, he explained that the market has changed. Global liquidity and shifts in investor behavior now drive BTC more than the old halving pattern.

“I no longer believe in the four-year cycle,” Hayes said. He added that Bitcoin’s growth depends more on macroeconomic trends than mining events. He believes that monetary policy, especially the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates, will be the main factor driving Bitcoin’s next big move. Arthur Hayes expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates soon. He predicts this cycle of rate cuts could continue until mid-2026.

Hayes also suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might face pressure from former President Trump to lower rates significantly. According to him, this could help extend Bitcoin’s current bull run. Hayes added that lower interest rates would bring new liquidity into the economy. A large portion of that liquidity could flow into Bitcoin. The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Economists also predict more cuts could follow by the end of this year.

Arthur Hayes: Doesn't Believe in Four-Year Cycle, BTC Will Break Through 200k

During an interview with Kyle Chasse, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, discussed the impact of macro liquidity on the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out that the market consensus is that the… pic.twitter.com/Ty84FBmp2B

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 15, 2025

Hayes Says Money Printing Could Keep Bitcoin Bull Run Alive

Arthur Hayes believes that even if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates multiple times, former President Trump will likely find ways to inject more money into the economy. This, he says, could help keep the Bitcoin bull run alive. Hayes pointed out that money printing often benefits Bitcoin because its supply is limited, unlike traditional fiat currencies.

Arthur Hayes commented on the current market, noting that Bitcoin has fallen behind the S&P 500 and gold, which continue reaching record highs as global M2 liquidity rises. He added that this should not be a concern, since Bitcoin has remained the top-performing asset since it was created.

Since hitting an all-time high of around $124,000 last month, Bitcoin’s price has mostly moved sideways. This has led to speculation that this peak could mark the top for the flagship cryptocurrency. Hayes disagrees that Bitcoin has peaked. He said governments will print more money, some of which could flow into BTC. He added that the macro environment will guide his exit from the market.

Hayes Predicts Big Growth for Stablecoins and Altcoins

Hayes anticipates $10–30 trillion potentially moving into regulated stablecoins, creating a strong foundation for decentralized finance growth. This shift could challenge traditional banks and offer significant asymmetric returns for altcoin holders. He emphasizes altcoins with strong product-market fit, active revenue distribution to token holders, and scalable infrastructure. Athena, Hyperliquid, and EtherFi are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this strategy.