Bitcoin Price Prediction – Why BTC Could Be Headed to $74K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is struggling at the $83,616 resistance level
• Bitcoin’s failure at resistance is a reflection of the risk-off mode in the market
• Correction off resistance could see Bitcoin drop to $74k short term

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a correction today after a rebound on Tuesday, March 17. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $83,127, down by 1% in the day. However, trading volumes have shrunk in the day and currently stand at $24.99 billion, down by 1.85% in the day. This could be an indication that most investors are staying away from the market at the moment. 

This is quite expected, given that tomorrow, March 19, the Federal Reserve is expected to decide on interest rates. Usually, interest rate decisions lead to a spike in volatility and see the market move sharply in any direction. In the case of Bitcoin, which already is a highly volatile asset, the price movements could be wild, which explains why big money players are looking to stay away at the moment. 

Bitcoin Price Could Rally Drop If Rates Are Held

Multiple surveys show that most investors expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at around 4.25 – 4.50%. This could be a plus for the market because it would indicate that the Federal Reserve has maintained its independence from the decisions of the Trump administration. However, it remains expensive for investors to borrow and push money into high-risk assets. 

FED meeting week FOMC 🇺🇸

It is already pretty much guaranteed rates remain steady 425-450 bps

Markets however will be watching the FED's Dot Plot which shows sentiment on how many cuts we can expect in 2025 and to what %.

✅3 rate cuts then market could see a solid up move… pic.twitter.com/deMSQGUMDW

— Marzell (@MarzellCrypto) March 18, 2025

Usually, high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies tend to do best when interest rates are low. As such, now that rates will likely remain high for the better part of the year, investors could keep pushing money toward low-risk assets such as treasury bonds.

The case against Bitcoin in a high interest rates environment is also driven by the fact that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle appears broken. Investors had a lot of expectations that Bitcoin would be at prices above $150k at this point in tandem with past cycles. The fact that it has not happened and rates are high could see investors shy away from Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the short term.

Michael Saylor Statement Further Mirrors Ongoing Sentiment

MicroStrategy has been one of the biggest buyers of Bitcoin in recent times. Its founder, Michael Saylor has also been one of the biggest advocates for Bitcoin, even making some big predictions of Bitcoin rallying to millions of dollars per coin. However, even he seems to be tempering his optimism in the short term. 

This week, MicroStrategy made its smallest Bitcoin purchase in its history, buying only $10 million worth of Bitcoin between March 10 and March 16. Michael Saylor also stated that Bitcoin would rocket once risk-on returns to the market. This indicates that even one of the most bullish people on Bitcoin is in Bitcoin and admits that the market is currently in a risk-off environment. Essentially, this means Bitcoin could be headed lower in the short term. 

February: Michael Saylor buys $BTC for $1.99 billion at an average price of $97,514 per coin.

March: Michael Saylor buys $BTC for $10.7 million at an average price of $82,981 per coin.

What happened? pic.twitter.com/uiFm6lhv9f

— HodlFM Team (@Hodl_fm) March 17, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Struggling At Resistance

From the charts, Bitcoin is trading at a critical resistance level after a price rebound yesterday, March 17. The rebound, which was in line with a bounce in US stocks, saw Bitcoin briefly push through the $83,616 resistance. However, with stocks retracing and Bitcoin now back below resistance, the key level to watch is the $78,569 support. 

A push through the $78,569 support with high volumes could see Bitcoin drop to prices as low as $74k in the short term. However, if there is a hint that the Fed could lower rates and risk-on returns to the market, Bitcoin could rally through the $83,616 resistance to prices as high as $88k in the short term.