Bitcoin Price Prediction – Geopolitical Tensions Could Push BTC Below $100K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin bears emboldened by the attack on Iran by Israel
• Bearish sentiment accelerated by fears that the bull run is over
• Another correction could see Bitcoin lose $100k

Bitcoin is in a correction today, down by 2.74% to trade at $104,707. However, trading volumes have shot up 34% to $71.8 billion. Such a strong surge in volumes, when prices drop, could indicate that investors are liquidating their long positions in Bitcoin. Such liquidations hint that Bitcoin is likely headed lower in the short term. A confluence of factors in the market could cause Bitcoin to hit lower prices in the short term. 

Rising Tensions In the Middle East Likely to Push Bitcoin Price Lower

One of them is the rising tensions in the Middle East. While Bitcoin’s most significant use case is digital gold, the reality is that this use case is yet to catch on. Primarily, Bitcoin trades in the same direction as US stock indices and inversely to gold. As such, anytime there is market uncertainty and the stock markets go down, Bitcoin tends to go down along with them.

Israel is officially attacking Iran right now.

The entire Israel are currently in bomb shelters as the sirens are going off nationwide pic.twitter.com/hkYANFCpBq

— AnimalFarm1945 (@Farm1945A) June 13, 2025

This is quite evident in today’s price action after Israel attacked Iran overnight. The attack saw gold prices rally, while US stock indices dropped. Bitcoin also went down alongside the stocks. With fear and uncertainty likely to unfold even more as fears of escalation increase, stock indices are likely to go lower. The result is that Bitcoin, too, could be headed lower in the short term. The actions of short sellers looking to capitalize on a correction could trigger an accelerated Bitcoin selloff in the short term.

Fears the Crypto Bull Cycle Is Over, Adding to Bitcoin Uncertainty

The rising uncertainty in the geopolitical space is also coming at a time when there are fears that Bitcoin may have topped out. The cryptocurrency bull cycle was supposed to start in 2024 after the halving and run to H2 of 2025. However, this cycle has not worked out as the previous ones. While Bitcoin has made new all-time highs, it is not the parabolic move usually witnessed in bull cycles. 

At the same time, altcoins remained weak throughout. This has led to fears that the cycle is broken and that it could be nearing an end. Such worries are driven by Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly and monthly charts, which increasingly mirrors the price action at the tail end of the last bull market. Such could embolden short sellers and add to the correction that Bitcoin is experiencing now.

This indicator has nailed every bitcoin top.

It’s called NUPL.

Helped me exit at $69K last cycle.

The top is not in yet, bitcoin will go higher.

But be careful when we enter in the red territory.

I’ll share the top right here, in real time.

I did my job and warned you. pic.twitter.com/1FH8ouXWfI

— Crypto Beast (@cryptobeastreal) June 13, 2025

Institutional Buyers Likely Buying Paper, Not Actual Bitcoin

There are also fears that the institutions buying Bitcoin are not purchasing actual Bitcoin, but paper Bitcoin. Such fears increased last week after Michael Saylor of Strategy dismissed calls to show his company’s Proof-of-Reserves. Some have interpreted this to mean the company may be buying paper Bitcoin. It could explain why the price of Bitcoin does not move much with all the institutional buying going on.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Rebound Rejected at Resistance

From the charts, Bitcoin is sending bearish signals intraday. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has crashed hard through the $104,337 support on the hourly charts. While bulls have attempted a rebound, they have been sharply rejected at the $105,425 intraday resistance.

The result is that bears are now back in control, aiming for a second attempt at the $104,337 support. If bears are strong enough to crash Bitcoin through the $104,337 support, then prices below $100k could be hit in the short term. However, if bears fail at the $104,337 support, a consolidation between the $105,425 resistance and $104,337 support could follow in the short term.