Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Eyes $106K as Critical Resistance Broken

Highlights:

• Bitcoin has breached the critical $94,207 resistance
• Breaching resistance paves the way for a rally to $106K
• The rally could be supported by growing Bitcoin scarcity even as demand grows

Bitcoin has started the week strong, continuing last week’s underlying bullish momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $94,870, up 0.74% for the day. Additionally, trading volumes are rising, up 11.18% to hit $19.85 billion, suggesting renewed market optimism after weeks of investor uncertainty. 

Aggressive Buying By Strategy Triggers Speculation of Synthetic Halving

One of the factors likely to sustain the ongoing momentum is speculation that large Bitcoin buyers, like Strategy, are triggering a synthetic BTC Halving. Adam Livingston, Bitcoin analyst and author of The Bitcoin Age and The Great Harvest, said that Strategy’s purchases could lead to a synthetic Bitcoin halving. Strategy, Livingston says, is triggering a supply shock by purchasing large quantities of Bitcoin from the market, which is reminiscent of the shock that usually follows Bitcoin’s scheduled halvings. 

Strategy is synthetically halving Bitcoin and will set the cost of capital for the next 100 years.

Most people think the Bitcoin supply curve is sacred.

Fixed. Immutable. Untouchable.

They're wrong.

Strategy is manually rewriting Bitcoin’s scarcity schedule right now with…

— Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) April 27, 2025

Livingston illustrates that Strategy has surpassed the allotted Bitcoin mining output limit for a single day. He explains how miners produce an estimated 13,500 BTC monthly, yet Strategy has purchased 379,800 BTC in the last 6 months alone. The daily figures are listed at 2,087 BTC, far better than the miners’ daily output, thus disrupting the balance. “Such an imbalance could make Bitcoin more and more scarce and tight, and consequently, drive its price higher,” he states.

The analyst noted that if obtaining Bitcoin becomes significantly more difficult, it will increase its borrowing costs, positioning Strategy as a key player in determining Bitcoin’s global cost of capital. This centralization might transform Bitcoin into a luxury good predominantly held by nation-states and major corporations, with Strategy at the center of this new financial paradigm. 

Livingston emphasized that a Bitcoin supply shock would unlock its price’s upside potential if the bulk buying continues. Moreover, he pointed out that growing retail and institutional investor demand and dwindling supply create conditions for a significant rally.

Positive Coinbase Premium Gap Signals Strong Institutional Demand

Another positive indicator of Bitcoin’s performance is the Coinbase Premium Gap. As highlighted by market analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s trading performance on Coinbase and Binance indicates that for over 11 consecutive days, it has traded higher on Coinbase, the fifth-longest streak since Bitcoin ETPs were launched in January last year. A Coinbase premium has historically preceded bullish breakouts for Bitcoin.

ETF Printer Goes Brrr 🖨️

Coinbase Premium Gap (30HMA) has stayed positive for 265 straight hours (~11 days).

That’s the 5th longest buy-spree since ETF trading began. pic.twitter.com/q5k0XQ0caO

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) April 25, 2025

FOMO Could Push Bitcoin Price to New All-Time Highs as ETF Demand Grows

Strong ETF-driven demand also seems to support Bitcoin’s bullish market momentum. Analysts predict that Bitcoin will break previous records, especially with FOMO becoming widespread among retail and institutional investors.

Short position liquidations have further increased the overpowering bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. More than $450 million in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated on April 21 when the asset’s price rose sharply, which provided ancillary support to Bitcoin’s ascent towards $95,000.

$4.5B IN BITCOIN SHORTS WOULD BE LIQUIDATED AT $100K

Source: Crypto Rover pic.twitter.com/XFGBE0Ljjc

— Mario Nawfal’s Roundtable (@RoundtableSpace) April 28, 2025

Bitcoin’s Growing Independence from Traditional Markets: A Bullish Signal

A significant decoupling from the stock markets has also augmented Bitcoin’s price resiliency. Historically, Bitcoin has priced in lock step with the S&P 500, but the correlation has substantially weakened in recent months. The asset’s increasing value compared to global equity markets confirms Bitcoin’s growing independence as a distinct asset class.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Breaches Critical Resistance

Bitcoin has breached the $94,207 resistance for the second time in four days today. This is an indicator that bullish sentiment is on the rise. If Bitcoin buying volumes increase and bullish price action continues, a rally to $106,179 could follow.

On the other hand, if bears manage to push the price back below the $94,207 resistance, then a correction to the $83,650 support could follow.