Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Could Drop to $106,000 Intraday as Options Expire

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is still range-bound between $108,954 and $93,386
• $3 billion options expiry could trigger a drop to the $106,000 price level
• Demand for Bitcoin continues to rise as regulations get better 

Bitcoin (BTC) is little changed today, reflecting a relatively calm day in the market. When going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $108,938, down by 0.92% in the day. However, Bitcoin trading volumes have shrunk significantly intraday. They are down by 17.91% in the day to stand at $47.08 billion. This indicates that investors are not selling their Bitcoin despite the slow price movement intraday. Such is driven by strengthening fundamentals as Bitcoin continues to embed itself in the global financial system. 

Congress’s Moves Inspire Confidence In Bitcoin Price

One indicator of how important Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general have become in the global financial landscape is the fact that Congress has designated a whole week to cryptocurrencies. The week starting July 14 has been designated as Cryptocurrency Week, and the House Financial Services Committee will debate major cryptocurrency-related regulations. Among these are the GENIUS Act, Anti-CBDCs Act, and CLARITY Act.

MAJOR WEEK LOADING! 🚨
Starting July 14, the U.S. House kicks off official “Crypto Week”! 🇺🇸

📌 Key legislation on the table:
— CLARITY Act (Clear crypto guidelines)
— Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act
— GENIUS Act (Tech & innovation support)#XRP holders — stay sharp
Regulatory… pic.twitter.com/IbG05ukBPe

— RippleRadar (@RippleRadar) July 4, 2025

While these legislations have diverse focuses, the overriding goal is to bring transparency in the cryptocurrency market. The impact is that the average investor now has more confidence when buying cryptocurrency. Since Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency that the average non-crypto public is likely to interact with first, the odds are high that these legislations could drive up retail and institutional adoption of Bitcoin. This makes the bullish case for Bitcoin solid going into the future. 

Another even more impactful bill for Bitcoin was introduced yesterday, July 3, by Senator Lummis. The bill aims to make small cryptocurrency transactions that are under $300 exempt from capital gains tracking. This is a big deal as it could incentivize small investors to try a hand in Bitcoin investing, without taxes holding them back.

🇺🇸 Senator Lummis proposed a bill introducing a tax kill for small crypto capital gains, up to $300 per transaction with a $5,000 yearly cap!

This is a positive step for everyday crypto adoption! pic.twitter.com/gqjdyuxneq

— Winter Soldier ❄️🙋🏻‍♂️ (@WinterSoldierxz) July 4, 2025

Coinbase’s Latest Move Points to Long-Term Optimism

The bullish sentiment around Bitcoin is also evident in the fact that major exchanges are making moves that signal long-term confidence in the cryptocurrency market. One such move is by Coinbase, which has announced the purchase of Liquifi, a platform for launching cryptocurrency tokens. More specifically, Coinbase announced that it is expanding its perpetual futures products for Bitcoin.

Coinbase now has nano-BTC/ETH perpetual futures that have a 5-year expiry date. This could see more long-term capital flow into Bitcoin. It explains why holders are not letting go of their Bitcoin on days like today when volumes are low.

You asked for it, we built it.

Perpetual-style crypto futures are coming to the US on July 21.

Starting with $BTC and $ETH. No quarterly expiration, available 24/7, with spot price tracking. Fully CFTC compliant.

Only available on Coinbase 🫡 pic.twitter.com/2Df9coAuIo

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) June 26, 2025

Institutional Money Flow Into Bitcoin ETFs at Record Highs

The impact of positive regulations on Bitcoin is also evident in the institutional money flow into Bitcoin. Inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to rise and are now close to $50 billion. The institutional demand for Bitcoin is also quite strong in the spot market. Long-term whales that bought Bitcoin in the 2010s have been offloading Bitcoin since it hit $100k.

However, this has not caused a price crash because the supply has been absorbed by institutional money. Led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, organizations are spending billions of dollars building up Bitcoin treasuries.

Nearly $50 B in cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have solidified their place as mainstream investment vehicles. pic.twitter.com/urpqj4MnzH

— lofty ✌️ (@midepeter3) July 3, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Still In Consolidation

Bitcoin continues consolidating between the $108,984 resistance and $93,386 support for the 7th week in a row. Today’s lack of price action is particularly due to the fact that the US markets are closed due to the July 4 Federal holiday.

This means most US institutions are not active in the market today. However, there could be short-term downside volatility as options are expiring today. The max pain for these strike options is at $106,000. This could mean Bitcoin potentially dropping to around $106,000 but the overall momentum points to continued pressure on the $108,954 resistance due to rising demand.