Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Could Drop to $101k Before Rebound

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trading in a supply zone between $106,605 and $104,845
• Failure at this supply zone could trigger a drop to $101k or lower
• Overall, the Bitcoin trajectory is up despite intraday weakness

Bitcoin (BTC) is little changed today, continuing the relatively low volatility it has exhibited in the week so far. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $104,881, down by a negligible 0.19% in the day. However, trading volumes have dropped significantly intraday. They are down by 10.25% to stand at $63.71 billion. This can be indicative of two scenarios. 

The first is that despite the lack of price action, the average holder is not selling their Bitcoin. The second is that buyers are cautious about taking positions in Bitcoin. That’s because of fears that Bitcoin could be losing upside momentum and that the risk of a drop below $100k is possible. Several strong market factors support both of these scenarios. 

Institutional Investors Not Selling Bitcoin Despite Price Weakness

Despite the ongoing price weakness, holders, especially the institutional players, are not selling their Bitcoin. Strong underlying fundamentals support this conviction. The institutions buying Bitcoin are not doing so expecting a parabolic pump that a dump has historically followed. They are in it for the long haul, where the price goes up more steadily over time. This is already supported by market analysts who point out that Bitcoin is entering a maturity phase.

Pointers to this maturity include banks starting to offer cryptocurrency products in highly regulated markets such as Europe. For instance, in Spain, OpenBank is now offering cryptocurrency trading services.

Openbank has launched a crypto trading service in Spain allowing customers to buy, hold and sell Bitcoin and other major tokens directly in its app.https://t.co/ekc7NMlF6S

— Asvoria $ASV/SOL (@Asvoria_web3) November 11, 2025

With maturity, the mega pump and dump that happened every four years may be over for Bitcoin. The price could start moving up more gradually, with smaller dips. Now that the price is already starting to exhibit such price action, institutions are likely to continue buying even more Bitcoin. That’s because, besides chasing gains, institutional money seeks capital preservation. This explains why, despite the lack of action and a sense of weakness, large holders are not selling. The lack of strong selling pressure also means a rebound could be around the corner. 

Lack of Retail Interest In Bitcoin Has A Solid Basis to It

However, the lack of excitement by retail money also has a strong underlying basis to it. One of them is the fears around the large amount of Bitcoin that the UK government has seized from a Chinese scammer. The UK government has confiscated over 4.8 billion pounds worth of Bitcoin from Zhimin Quinn, who had stolen from Chinese pensioners and then fled to England. The fear is that, if the UK government decides to sell off such a huge amount of Bitcoin, it could cause a steep, albeit temporary dip in the price.

⚖️ CPS and @MetPoliceUK worked to secure one of the largest ever Bitcoin seizures worth over £4.8 billion and helped to jail the leader of the criminal gang and her accomplice who defrauded thousands of victims in China.

Read more on our website ➡️ https://t.co/25fYWLvZ1H pic.twitter.com/MVfS3rFXBj

— Crown Prosecution Service (@CPSUK) November 11, 2025

Then there is the brewing geopolitical storm between the US and China. There are reports that China is accusing the US government of being behind the hacking of LuBian that led to the loss of 127,272 Bitcoin. The tensions around this issue between the two giants, already in a trade war, could negatively impact Bitcoin in the short term. Until some of these issues subside, Bitcoin could continue to experience low interest from retail money.

🚨 BREAKING

CHINA ACCUSES U.S. GOVERNMENT OF STEALING 127,000 $BTC (WORTH $13 BILLION) ALLEGEDLY TAKEN FROM THE LUBIAN MINING POOL HACKED IN 2020. pic.twitter.com/NYE5z8ACdS

— Nonzee (@0xNonceSense) November 11, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Entering A Strong Supply Zone

After a slight rebound intraday, Bitcoin is entering a strong supply zone between $106,605 and $104,805. If the sellers in this price level trigger a price breakdown, then Bitcoin could drop to around $101,614 in the short term.

On the other hand, if buyers are strong enough to push Bitcoin through the $106,605 upper resistance level, then a rally to $110k price level. Given the low uptake of Bitcoin intraday, as evident in the volumes, the odds are higher for a drop to $101,614 before any major rebound.