Bitcoin Price Prediction – $100k In Focus as Market Withstands Trade War Fears

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is showing signs of a rebound after a slight correction to $93k
• Rebound points to resilience despite uncertainties in the global economy
•  Sustained rebound could push the price back to $100k or higher

Following a decline earlier this week, Bitcoin has stabilized. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has increased by 0.57% to $95,696. In contrast, trading volume has increased significantly by 39% to stand at $38.8 billion. This suggests that even though the price of Bitcoin is not moving significantly, investors continue to accumulate the asset.

The accumulation pattern indicates that market players anticipate the price slump to be temporary. Investors seem confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory and are capitalizing by increasing their holdings.

Trade Policy and Economic Anxiety from the U.S

The short-term slump in Bitcoin’s price can be linked to policy uncertainties in the US. Concerns about the global economy and economic policy changes in the US are creating volatility in the market. The Trump administration has signaled the potential of introducing new reciprocal tariffs on American import-taxing nations, which could trigger fears of a trade war. Typically, investors become risk-averse during tough economic times, which leads to a drop in exposure to volatile markets.

In most cases, cryptocurrencies portray their corresponding risk sentiment. Analysts observe that Bitcoin, for example, appears to respond very aggressively to macroeconomic developments and the amount of risk an investor is willing to take.

Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy in Focus

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is another major determinant of the market. The economy has not provided any significant information as to whether the central bank will maintain its current policies or change them in accordance with the available economic information. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that inflation is still significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s desired 2% rate. This has provoked thoughts that the Fed will probably keep its hawkish policy for a longer time than anticipated.

US – CPI (Jan)

m/m = +0.5% (avg +0.3% / previously +0.4%)
y/y = +3% (avg +2.9% / previously +2.9%)

core CPI = +3.3% y/y (avg +3.1% / previously +3.2%)

Trump let's fix
This is fucked up pic.twitter.com/punXKs9j5h

— Avocado (@Avocadotrad) February 12, 2025

For a Bitcoin investor, higher interest rates are generally seen as negative. Expenses to borrow increase, and assets that do not earn yield, such as Bitcoin, become even less appealing.

Analysts Maintain Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin Price

Even with minor changes in the market, analysts still retain a bull market Bitcoin forecast. Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin would reach over $500,000 before the end of Donald Trump’s second term.

🚀 Standard Chartered sees more sovereign wealth funds entering the #Bitcoin market.

💡 Geoffrey Kendrick predicts:
✅ More state pension funds & institutional investors will buy BTC
✅ $500K BTC target by 2028 remains unchangedhttps://t.co/XDv8d9BdnL

— NEXART (@NEX_ArtX) February 18, 2025

Kendrick is betting on increasing institutional involvement in Bitcoin investments. Recently, hedge funds and banks, alongside some sovereign entities, have started to make major moves into Bitcoin ETFs, as evidenced by the 13F filings. Kendric also pointed to the possibility of more sovereign funds, such as the Abu Dhabi fund, to buy and hold Bitcoin in the long term.

Sovereign Entities Enter the Bitcoin Market

Abu Dhabi made its initial commitment to a Bitcoin ETF, which, along with the expansion of Goldman Sach’s ETF holdings, predicts Kendrick constitutes a notable bet from sovereign institutions. In his view, such sovereign entities will increasingly enter the Bitcoin space, hence increasing long-term demand even further.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s Perspective on Bitcoin

Ramaswamy, a politician and businessman, is another influential figure who has commented on how Bitcoin can be incorporated into corporate finance. He believes it will be more common for businesses to hold Bitcoin in their treasury as they evolve with the ongoing changes within the financial world.

Now that the era of easy money is over, companies & other institutions (even state actors) will have to rethink their hurdle rates for internal capital investment. Bitcoin is likely to become a more common corporate treasury holding in that environment. Interesting trend to watch https://t.co/E1CNondyuB

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 18, 2025

Ramaswamy’s remarks resonate with the increasing institutional demand for Bitcoin as a reserve currency. Matt Cole, the CEO of Strive, is on record declaring that his company wants to push for at least BTC adoption in every industry. He has commented that his firm intends to push for adoption at least once per sector. Strive is one of the few investors who publicly supported the activist proposal to enable Microsoft to adopt Bitcoin as a corporate reserve cryptocurrency. Strive’s activism signals a change in the perception of corporations towards Bitcoin and the broader industry.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Makes Strong Rebound

After a correction to $93,373 on February 18, Bitcoin has established strong support at $94,008. Since then, Bitcoin bulls have retaken control.

If Bitcoin bulls sustain this momentum, the intra-day target for Bitcoin would be $98,562. A rally through this price could put $100k in focus in the short term.