Bitcoin Price Forecast – Why BTC Could Soon Drop to $78K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is trending towards the $80,947 support
• A crash through the $80,947 support could push Bitcoin to $78k
• Upcoming US tariffs could drive the crash to $78k or lower 

Bitcoin continues to struggle as its downward trend extends to the last day of March. Bitcoin is currently valued at $81,603.53, a decrease of 2.11%. Meanwhile, trading volume has surged 13% to $19.44 billion, signaling a possible exit by investors in fear of more downside. 

Tariffs Ignite Market Turbulence

Analysts attribute the Bitcoin selloff to growing economic uncertainty, most notably concerning Trump’s impending tariffs slated for early April. Trump referred to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when reciprocal tariffs are set to be imposed.

This has triggered a risk-off approach in the markets, and high-risk assets like Bitcoin have crashed in value. However, this is not unique to Bitcoin, as the stock markets have also crashed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) futures have lost 206 points, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.56%. 

It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:

President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.

US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) pic.twitter.com/WnaIVcApl0

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2025

Inflation Fears Adding to BTC Selloff

Bitcoin’s ongoing selloff can also be attributed to an increased risk of inflation in the US. Last week‘s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed a greater-than-anticipated increase in inflation, strengthening the case for uncertainty towards the economy.

Additionally, the consumer confidence index fell to a 12-year low in March, reflecting more pessimistic sentiment from businesses and individuals. This is a big deal as it could mean rate cuts may not come anytime soon, a factor that could keep Bitcoin’s price depressed for longer. 

The PCE inflation report is just out and it’s slightly worse than expected.
The headline PCE came in line with expection at 2.5% but the Core PCE (which is why the Fed looks at) is up to 2.8% and worse than estimates of 2.7%. pic.twitter.com/0tfpNcP7C3

— Quarter Chart (@QuarterChart) March 28, 2025

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Point to Subdued Market Sentiment

The outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, which saw net outflows of $93 million on March 28, are adding to the bleak short-term outlook for Bitcoin. B2V Crypto’s founding partner, Alexandre Vasarhelyi, notes that the cryptocurrency sector seems to be undergoing what could be called a withdrawal phase. 

💥DAILY ETF FACTS💥
On March 28, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $93.16 million, with none of the twelve ETFs seeing net inflows. In contrast, Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a total net inflow of $4.68 million, with none of the nine ETFs experiencing net… pic.twitter.com/1cNNthDII4

— All Facts Crypto (@AllFactsCrypto) March 29, 2025

Despite the hurdles, Bitcoin could see a vertical bullish reversal once the macro environment settles. One strong proponent of recovery is the continuously easing regulatory policies on crypto in the U.S.

California Pro-Bitcoin Policy Developments

This is the latest regulatory development in California. The California Assembly recently proposed the “Bitcoin Rights” bill (AB-1052). The bill intends to offer legal recognition for self-custody of digital assets and provide digital property law for unclaimed assets. Advocate groups such as the Satoshi Action Fund have applauded the bill for fostering the protection of financial markets and the ownership of digital assets.

It offers self-custodial rights to Bitcoin and other digital assets, forbidding public entities from levying additional taxes or restrictions on crypto in-out transactions. It also provides a legal framework for the custodial management of unclaimed domains in the virtual world. The bill’s proponents argue it could trigger other states to adopt similar legislation, initiating a federal paradigm shift.

Technical Analysis – BTC Trending Towards Support

In the day, Bitcoin is in the green and is trending towards the $80,947 multi-week support. 

If bears are strong enough to push Bitcoin through the $80,947 support, a correction to $78k could follow. On the other hand, if there is a rebound at the $80,947 support, a rebound to $87,535 could follow. 

Recap

Recession fears coupled with tariff-induced volatility in the markets have caused analysts to treat BTC’s recent correction as a reaction to broader economic factors instead of a fundamental one. Veteran investors, such as Vasarhelyi, contend that Bitcoin’s underperformance in recent weeks demonstrates weakness. With the upcoming reciprocal tariffs on April 2, investors could flee high-risk assets in droves and push Bitcoin to prices below $80k.