Bitcoin Price Forecast – ETF Outflows and Geopolitical Tensions Could Send BTC Below $60K

Highlights:

• Surge in risk-off sentiment pushes Bitcoin to $68,500
• Trading volumes point to cautious selling, but long-term confidence remains
• Geopolitical tensions and ETF outflows hint at more selloffs in the short term

Bitcoin (BTC) has started the week in the red, reflecting the selloff across most risk-on assets. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,515.83, down by 1.16% in the day. However, trading volumes have gone up slightly by 4% in the day to stand at $27.58 billion. This is an indicator that some holders are liquidating their positions in anticipation of more downside.

However, compared to most days when the volumes surge during corrections, this volume drop is negligible. It could be an indicator that the average holder believes Bitcoin will go up in the long term. However, given the prevailing environment, the expectation is that more downside will occur in the short term. 

Escalating Middle East Tensions Driving Bitcoin’s Downside Price Pressure

A key factor driving the short-term market sentiment is the escalating situation in the Middle East. President Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or he will bomb their power grid. Iran, on its part, has stated that if this happens, the country will attack critical infrastructure such as energy and desalination plants across the Gulf region.

Line in the sand. Trump issues ultimatum to Iran. They must reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else he will take out their power plants. pic.twitter.com/qCDeDtTnH0

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) March 22, 2026

At the same time, Iran has stepped up attacks against Israel over the weekend. This includes an attack close to an Israeli nuclear facility. Such a level of escalation has created the impression that the week ahead could be full of conflict. As such, investors are cutting their positions from Bitcoin and other risk-on assets and pivoting more towards traditional hedges such as Gold. 

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hint At Investor Expectation for More Selloffs

Rising ETF outflows also drive the price pressure on Bitcoin. After recording net inflows earlier last week, the tide changed towards the end of the week. On 18 March, Bitcoin recorded net outflows of $163 million. The outflow came as Bitcoin long liquidations surged to $87.5 million. With outflows rising, the pressure on the price could intensify in the short term, forcing more downside.

🩸NEW: SPOT BITCOIN ETFS RECORD HUGE OUTFLOW ON MARCH 18

According to SosoValue, Spot $BTC ETFs saw a total net outflow of 163.52M USD yesterday.

Fidelity's ETF FBTC had the highest net outflow, at 103.84M USD.

The second highest was @BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a daily net… pic.twitter.com/C8HdNteslo

— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 19, 2026

Bitcoin could also be pushed lower by fears around interest rates. If the crisis in the Middle East continues to disrupt energy supply, inflation could rise globally. Already, the US Federal Reserve has taken a hawkish pivot at its recent FOMC. If Central Banks across the globe raise interest rates due to inflationary pressure, it could hit risk-on assets in a big way. For Bitcoin, which has already proven to struggle under high interest rates, this could see its price tumble in the short to medium term.

NYSE Removal of Bitcoin Options Limits Could Draw In Traders

However, outside of the fears around the ongoing Middle East conflict, the operational environment is getting better for Bitcoin. In the US, the NYSE has joined other major options exchanges to remove the 25k contract limit on Bitcoin options. This is a big deal as it is expected to encourage institutional investments going into the future. That’s because open interest from big capital will rise, and dealers will be in a position to manage risk more efficiently. This move could see more capital flow into Bitcoin and push the price higher once the geopolitical uncertainties settle. 

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Price Still Within Multi-Week Consolidation

After two failed attempts at a breakout, BTC is currently still range-bound between the $70,410 resistance and $62,618. If the escalating tensions in the Middle East trigger a selloff across risk-on assets, the $62,618 support could come into focus. If this support gives way, Bitcoin could drop to prices below $60k in the short term.

On the other hand, if tensions ease and there is a rebound across the financial markets, the key level to watch would be the $70,410 resistance. A rally through this price level could see Bitcoin retest its recent high of $76k. Of these scenarios, a drop below $62,618 is more likely as the war in the Middle East is not showing signs of easing.