Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why BTC Could Lose $106K Support Soon

Highlights:

• Bitcoin bears are aiming for a retest of the $106,484 support 
• A correction through this support could push Bitcoin to $100k
• Global regulatory weakness is a key driver of Bitcoin’s short-term weakness

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the red today, a reflection of the weak price action across the market. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $107,788, down by 3.01% in the day. While this price action does not reflect a major correction, it also points to a lack of excitement in Bitcoin, at least in the short term. 

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At the same time, Bitcoin trading volumes are rising intraday. This happening at a time when the price is going down is an indicator that some Bitcoin holders may be exiting their positions. Overall, this points to a continuation of the price weakness that Bitcoin has exhibited in recent days. There are a couple of factors that point to the ongoing price weakness for BTC. 

Lack of Global Regulatory Consensus Holding Back BTC

One of them is the regulatory uncertainty around cryptocurrencies at the global level. While some countries are pushing forward with pro-cryptocurrency regulations, others are taking a step back. For instance, this year, the US has taken major steps in terms of bringing clarity to the cryptocurrency market.

Others, such as Japan, are also making positive steps, including a push to allow banks to hold cryptocurrency in their balance sheets. China also seems to be making positive steps that could play out in Bitcoin’s favor. For instance, the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong has announced that virtual asset trading platforms will be permitted to merge with global order books. 

Hong Kong has just allowed domestic crypto exchanges to connect directly to global liquidity (connect “order books” with international exchanges), helping to increase liquidity and have better trading prices. pic.twitter.com/cj2PUAgKkl

— Vinh Dao (@vinhdao286) November 3, 2025

However, in many other countries, there is a more cautious approach. For instance, the G8 recently called for caution around digital assets. Canada has recently published regulations stating that Tier 1 financial institutions must keep their cryptocurrency exposure under 5% of their total capital.

Kenya, an African country with strong digital asset adoption, has come up with laws mandating all Virtual Asset trading platforms to have a physical presence in the country. The country is also introducing an excise duty on virtual asset trading platform fees.

Such contradictory moves globally may be holding back capital flow into Bitcoin. That’s especially because other markets, such as the top stock indices, are doing well. Money is likely to keep flowing into stocks until there is real regulatory clarity across the globe.

Fed’s Lack of Commitment on December Rate Cut Adds to Weakness

Bitcoin is also being held back by the fact that the Federal Reserve did not do what the market had expected. The prevailing expectation for cryptocurrency investors was that the Federal Reserve would commit to another rate cut in December.

However, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was non-committal, which has led to sluggish price action. This is made worse by the fact that the geopolitical environment remains fragile, particularly with regard to US-China relations.

There’s now just a 69% chance of another rate cut in December.

The odds have fallen sharply since the last FOMC.

Will we get a rate cut? 👇 pic.twitter.com/ujDHDtmqTI

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) November 3, 2025

This has seen capital flow more into lower volatility assets compared to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Given this interplay of interest rates, geopolitics, and regulations, BTC could continue to experience negative pressure in the short to medium term. It explains why data shows that outflows from Bitcoin are on the rise, at least in the short term.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Bears Fail Second Attempt At Support

Bitcoin bears have been in control for the better part of the last 48 hours. However, Bitcoin bears appear to be losing momentum. They have failed to push the price for a retest of the $106,484 multi-day support. If bulls sustain momentum, Bitcoin could rally to the $110,692 resistance in the short term.

On the other hand, if bears regain momentum, the key level to watch would be the $106,484 support. A crash through the $106,484 support could send BTC dropping to prices as low as $100k in the short term. With the cryptocurrency market momentum weak, there is a chance for a crash through the $106,484 support.

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