Arthur Hayes Says U.S. Won’t Buy Bitcoin for Strategic Reserve Due to Debt

Highlights:

• Arthur Hayes said the U.S. won’t add Bitcoin due to high debt and weak support.
• He sees public views of Bitcoin fans as a barrier to government Bitcoin purchases.
• The analyst believes BTC dominance could rise to 70%.

In a May 1 interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his view that the U.S. is unlikely to purchase additional Bitcoin (BTC) for its reserves. He believes the country’s large debt and negative views of “Bitcoin bros” make it unlikely. Hayes also said he isn’t very interested in the idea of a government holding a strategic BTC reserve. He explained that the U.S. runs on debt, so the only way it could have a reserve is by holding onto the Bitcoin it has already taken from people about 200,000 Bitcoin and not selling it.

Hayes Doubts Politicians Will Support Government Bitcoin Purchases

Arthur Hayes said it’s hard to imagine any politician publicly stating the government will print money to purchase BTC. He also noted that the public’s view of Bitcoin fans as partygoers could make such a policy seem unappealing.

On March 6, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to set up a Bitcoin reserve and build a collection of digital assets for the country. The stockpile, according to David Sacks, the White House’s AI and crypto advisor, will include Bitcoin and other digital assets. A large portion of the Bitcoin was seized through legal cases, including major ones like Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack.

Just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

The Reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it…

— David Sacks (@davidsacks47) March 7, 2025

Recent data shows the U.S. owns 198,012 Bitcoins, worth over $18 billion. David Sacks called the Bitcoin reserve a digital Fort Knox and said the U.S. plans to hold, not sell the assets. Instead, it will be kept as a store of value. Many leaders in the crypto industry agree with Arthur Hayes, saying that if the U.S. government starts buying BTC, it could trigger a domino effect.

Hayes Expects BTC Cycle to Follow 2021 Pattern with Dominance Returning to 70%

Arthur Hayes still believes that the Bitcoin cycle leading to the altcoin season will follow the same pattern as it did in 2021, even though other analysts have different opinions.

He said:

“I personally think Bitcoin dominance is going back to where it was before the 2021 altcoin season, which is about 70%.” 

Arthur Hayes said he’s not convinced the pattern will change and believes people will continue rotating. He hinted at Bitcoin reaching fresh peaks as bullish sentiment grows, while altcoins may show even stronger gains. BTC dominance has risen to about 64%, marking an 11% gain since the start of the year.

Some analysts are unsure if BTC’s dominance will reach 70%. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, is one of the skeptics, and he expects Bitcoin dominance to stay around 60%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $96,338, reflecting a 0.57% drop over the past day. Trading volume decreased by 25%, reaching $21.1 billion, while the market cap stands at $1.91 trillion.