Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Surge to $112K or Fall to $44K: Key Levels to Watch

Highlights:

• Bitcoin struggles to stay above key levels but may rebound if conditions improve.
• Ali Martinez says Bitcoin must break $94,000 or stay above $76,000 to move next.
• PlanB predicts Bitcoin could double this year, possibly breaking its four-year cycle.

Bitcoin remains volatile, struggling to stay above key levels. It tried to reclaim $90,000 but pulled back again. At the time of publication, BTC is priced at $84,319, reflecting a slight 0.32% increase over the past 24 hours. Its market cap stands at $1.67 trillion, while daily trading volume has fallen by 32.65% to $16.37 billion.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes Bitcoin’s price direction depends on key support and resistance levels. Using MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, he identified two crucial levels that could determine its next move.

If Bitcoin breaks and holds above the $94,000 resistance level, it has a high probability of rallying to approximately $112,000, marking a new all-time high. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $76,000 support level, it risks declining further to $58,000 or even $44,000.

MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands help determine if an asset like Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued compared to past averages. This can signal potential market tops or buying opportunities. Martinez’s chart shows BTC trading within the yellow band (mean) and the orange band (+0.5 standard deviation). A breakout above or below these levels could signal Bitcoin’s next major price move.

Using pricing bands, we can identify the next key support and resistance levels:

– If #Bitcoin breaks and holds above $94,000, there is a high probability it could surge to $112,000.
– If $BTC drops below $76,000, the next critical support levels are $58,000 and $44,000 pic.twitter.com/rXfi1YNu77

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 21, 2025

PlanB Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Double This Year

Another analyst also shared a bullish outlook. PlanB posted on X, stating that Bitcoin remains in an uptrend and could double in price by 2025. His analysis uses Bitcoin’s 200-week arithmetic and geometric moving averages. These indicators help spot bull and bear markets. According to PlanB, these averages have stayed close for over a year. This suggests a steady uptrend with less volatility, not a downward trend. 

PlanB said a real bear market comes after a true bull run. This happens when two key averages move far apart. Since that hasn’t happened yet, he believes Bitcoin hasn’t had a real bull phase. PlanB highlighted Bitcoin’s steady price doubling over the past two years. It went from $20,000 in 2022 to $40,000 in the subsequent year and reached $80,000 in early 2024.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin could hit $160,000 this year. He said this pattern could break Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. However, as Bitcoin matures and gains institutional adoption, such a change makes sense.

If the trend holds, Bitcoin could reach $320,000 in 2026 and $640,000 in 2027. These targets are ambitious, but the short-term focus remains on breaking the $80,000–$90,000 range.

Some are calling the bear market. I don't agree. The fact that Bitcoin’s 200-week arithmetic and geometric means have been close together for over a year indicates reduced volatility and steady sustained uptrend, doubling from $20k to $40k in 2023 and from 40k to $80k in 2024.… pic.twitter.com/paSkiQcKSy

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 19, 2025

​Moreover, in a recent tweet, Arthur Hayes, CEO of Maelstrom, projected that Bitcoin price could reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

Moreover, macroeconomic factors like inflation, interest rates, and political events affect the crypto market. However, investors decide whether to buy, sell, or hold their assets. CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that whales and institutions own 78% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This gives them a major influence on price movements.