Altcoins final exit pump against Bitcoin before ultimate capitulation: insights from leading analyst

A famous crypto expert predicts a sharp downturn for the altcoin market compared to Bitcoin (BTC). In a recent video, crypto specialist Benjamin Cowen informed his massive 800,000 YouTube follower base.

He states that the TOTAL3 chart, which monitors the market value of all altcoins excluding Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins, appears to be set for a fall against Bitcoin.

Cowen’s altcoin analysis

Highlighting the vulnerability of altcoins against Bitcoin, Cowen predicts that altcoins may be on the brink of a drastic downturn in the upcoming weeks. He points out that many altcoins continue to record new lows compared to their Bitcoin counterparts.

Proving otherwise would require one to meticulously select from the top 20 altcoins not currently hitting new lows or, alternatively, unearth a recently created micro-cap that is not recording fresh lows.

Many of these elements are identifiable when one examines the TOTAL3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. It’s plausible that what we’re currently observing is the final escape pump of alt-to-Bitcoin pairs.

This scenario could play out before a final surrender of these alt-to-Bitcoin pairs as we advance into May and June. That’s a foreseeable outcome.

The analyst observes a specific TOTAL3/Bitcoin pattern that seems to echo its manifestation from the 2019 cycle. According to him, the present cycle is strikingly similar to the former. Drawing a parallel, he points out that, just like last cycle, a low was set in May 2019.

This was followed by a fleeting rally in June 2019, yet it ultimately couldn’t overcome the bullish market support band. The trend subsequently ebbed as summer rolled in.

Altcoins paired with Bitcoin may often stumble in summer. This is because people aren’t as focused on their computers as they typically are in fall, spring, and winter. Summer distracts people with different activities, so the general demand for the altcoin market can decrease.

Assessing the current landscape, we can surmise that we’re seeing the last bounce of alt-Bitcoin pairs. Despite this sudden upward movement, they are expected to fail and dip back down to their lowest range.

Moreover, the usual grace period seen in other market rallies is expected to be absent here. It’s predicted this downward trend will only usher in the final capitulation, reducing altcoins to roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

Bitcoin’s weekend performance

Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s value slightly dipped from $64,000 to $61,800, then stabilized near $63,000 during US afternoon trading. Despite this minor drop, representing about a 1% decrease in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin still performed better than the broader market index, the CoinDesk Market Index (CD20), which saw a 3% loss during the same timeframe.

Major altcoins such as ETH, SOL, and DOGE have seen a drop in value, reducing their weekend profits by 4%-6%. The crypto market has been relatively stagnant recently, lacking a firm investment narrative to stimulate price increases.

The calm comes after a spectacular run of Bitcoin prices and the general buzz around other altcoins and memecoins last month. CoinDesk tells us that Bitcoin and Ether’s trend indicators are holding steady, indicating there’s no distinct market trend.

Despite the upcoming launch of bitcoin and ether ETFs in Hong Kong, the anticipation doesn’t seem to match the high excitement surrounding the debut of US spot bitcoin ETFs. Noticeably, the price of BTC almost doubled within three months before its debut on January.

Despite the low expectations, a representative from ChinaAMC – one of the companies issuing the new Hong Kong-listed spot ETFs – shared in a press briefing that the first-day share issuance could outdo the US debut’s $125 million. This statement refers to the initial funding for these new products.