Altcoins Could Drop Further Before Potential Gains, Says Analyst

Highlights:

• Benjamin Cowen predicts altcoins may decline further before any gains.
• He foresees a major downturn peaking by December 2024 or January 2025.
• Bitcoin’s dominance is rising, putting pressure on altcoins in the market.

In a bold forecast on X, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen said that altcoins could experience more declines before any gains. He predicts an imminent “grand finale” in altcoin price corrections, suggesting significant changes ahead. Cowen anticipates that this major downturn will reach its peak by December 2024 or the second week of January 2025.

He compares the situation to the final flush-out phase of the 2019 bear crypto market. He expects altcoins to gradually recover next year. Cowen said altcoins saw a gradual recovery in 2020 before reaching new highs in 2021.

It looks like the grand finale of the altcoin reckoning has finally arrived.

The altcoin reckoning should be over by December 2024 (2nd week of January 2025 at the latest).

It has been a long journey, and many gave up along the way, but this process was always going to play out pic.twitter.com/WRVUvIHDTt

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 3, 2024

The ALT/BTC pair has already fallen below a key support level, indicating potential declines in the coming weeks. However, Cowen suggested a possible rebound in the months ahead as the U.S. moves toward a new monetary policy driven by the Fed’s rate cut.

In his latest YouTube video, he stated:

“Altcoins have been steadily losing ground to Bitcoin, and I believe altcoins won’t have a sustained season until 2025. Historically, alt seasons follow a strong Bitcoin rally, so unless Bitcoin experiences a parabolic run, we might not see an alt season.”

Expert Insights and Market Reactions

Building on Cowen’s forecast, crypto investor @SenseiBR_btc predicts “the biggest altseason” could start in the next 10 days. This outlook suggests a potential upswing for the altcoin market. Despite recent corrections, renewed investor interest and improved market sentiment could drive this rally. Heightened speculative trading may also play a role.

The biggest #ALTSEASON ever will start in less than 10 days.

Mark my words.

— Sensei (@SenseiBR_btc) November 3, 2024

The macro crypto outlook is still in focus, over seven months after Bitcoin’s fourth halving. Crypto analyst PlanB believes the 2024 U.S. elections will significantly shape this outlook in the coming months.

Bitcoin October closing price: $70,231 just below March monthly close ATH of $71,285 … ready for US elections. pic.twitter.com/2guzdHAM3S

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 3, 2024

Bitcoin Faces Resistance While Dominance Grows

Last week, Bitcoin price closed with an inverted hammer as bulls faced rejection near the all-time high of approximately $73,000. Despite this, Bitcoin’s dominance has been rising, recently surpassing the 60 percent mark. This shows a significant shift in market dynamics. It signals a reversal of trends that have influenced the industry for years. After a lengthy altcoin season, Bitcoin is regaining its leadership. 

After the recent approval of several spot Ether ETFs in various jurisdictions, fund managers are exploring altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP, and Litecoin (LTC) for similar offerings. However, mainstream demand for altcoins remains significantly lower than in previous crypto bull runs.

Cowen believes BTC’s dominance will continue to pressure altcoins for the foreseeable future. Many altcoin pairs are hitting new lows against Bitcoin. He points out that Bitcoin’s recent price trends follow historical patterns. These patterns generally favor Bitcoin over altcoins, particularly during halving years. 

He noted Bitcoin could gain further if it closes above $70,000 weekly. If Bitcoin falls below this level, the “monetary policy view” may dominate, signaling weakness in Bitcoin and altcoins. Cowen highlighted the ongoing challenges altcoin pairs face, stating they usually trail behind Bitcoin when dominance rises.