Alt Season Could Start if Bitcoin Surpasses $110K: Arthur Hayes

Highlights:

• BitMEX co-founder says alt season may start in summer if Bitcoin breaks above $110K with strong volume.
• Hayes expects many old coins won’t recover; new coins may gain attention.
• He prefers Ethereum over Solana, citing stronger fundamentals and a better ecosystem.

In a private interview at Token2049 Dubai, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told Fortune that alt season could begin if Bitcoin breaks above $110,000 and advances toward the $150,000–$200,000 range with strong trading volume. He shared this view when asked what price level could trigger a broad altcoin rally. He forecasted that this shift might take place during the summer or early in the third quarter.

Alt season happens when altcoins do better than BTC. This usually comes after Bitcoin’s price goes up because traders then move money from Bitcoin to altcoins to try for bigger gains. Bitcoin has been leading the market recently, but altcoins have been slower to move. Hayes said the next altcoin rally will be more careful, unlike in 2021 when almost every altcoin went up no matter their value.

He believes new coins will gain attention, but many old “dino coins” probably won’t recover. “A lot of those coins have high FDV, low float, no customers, no revenue, just some CEX listings, that went down 95%, I don’t really see why those should do well in the next cycle,” he added.

Arthur Hayes said that the altcoin season is expected to appear this summer or early in the third quarter; gold accounts for about 20% of his personal investment portfolio; ETH's growth may surpass SOL in the next 18-24 months of the bull market; Bitcoin will reach 1 million US…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 19, 2025

U.S. Debt Increase Could Raise Bitcoin Price

Hayes noted that the U.S. government is likely spending more than it shows. He said the Treasury General Account fell from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter using “extraordinary measures” to avoid raising new debt. Since the debt ceiling limits borrowing, the government uses different ways to keep spending.

He also noted that from January to March 2025, Treasury borrowing rose 22% compared to the same time last year. Hayes believes Treasury Secretary Janet Bessent will need to issue more debt soon. This will push banks to give more leverage, increasing the amount of dollars in circulation. It could drive BTC prices much higher.

Hayes Supports Gold and Ethereum

The interview focused on Bitcoin versus Gold. Hayes said he keeps 20% of his portfolio in Gold. He expects gold to reach $10,000 to $20,000 per ounce as central banks increase buying and the U.S. dollar weakens. He remains bullish on Bitcoin prices for 2025, which is shaping investor sentiment. 

Hayes also shared positive expectations for crypto developments during Donald Trump’s presidency. He said Trump’s administration will support favorable changes in the crypto space. Previously, he also predicted Bitcoin would reach $1 million by the end of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2028. This fits with other forecasts expecting BTC to exceed $200k this year.

Arthur Hayes delivered a speech at Token2049, predicting that Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million by 2028. He believes the U.S. will need to increase dollar liquidity through measures similar to quantitative easing, which could drive up cryptocurrency prices.…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 30, 2025

In the interview, Hayes preferred Ethereum over Solana. He believes Ethereum has stronger fundamentals and a more developed ecosystem. Despite recent price struggles and criticism, he sees it as the better option in the near term.

Bitcoin closed above $106,000 on May 18, achieving its strongest weekly finish and extending a six-week winning streak. The surge was due to steady corporate purchases and continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. On May 19, BTC briefly reached $107K before retreating. At the time of writing, it was trading near $103,000, about 5.4% below its January all-time high of $109,500.